August 1, 2020 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Talking Zip | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | R H Smoakem | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Unscathed | 1.60 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Seba’s Dancer | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Nyoman | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Speared | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Fixico | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Shaw | 1.40 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | To the Bank | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Medal of Fact | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Coming Up Aces | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Suprise Cat | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Big Dreaming | 1.40 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Quarterback Dak | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Red Hot Devil | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | John’s Rock | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | High Heater | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rip It Ryan | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Lapis Storm | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Way to Success | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kissmeonemoretime | 1.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lemon Drop Twist | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Superstar Diva | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | B N a Native Girl | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Of Note | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Crazy Sexy Munny | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Cholla | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Darlin Rosie | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Chainmail | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Looktheotherway | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wildwood Scat | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sky Freak | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Kuringai | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | No Time to Play | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Countess St Michel | 30.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Heart’s Passion | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Kingsbury Dream | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Romantic Attack | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Probably Grace | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | You Split Tens | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fade Away | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Big Money Machine | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Splash for Gold | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dollar Blue | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Angelino | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | First Masamune | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Honest to Goodness | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Tre Lee Divine | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dom the Bomb | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mr D’s Way | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Weiland | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Two Pair | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Flyingbyu | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mutakddim Road | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tio Chuy | 30.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | El Caminante | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.