July 31, 2020 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Vincent William | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Whacudposblygowrng | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Warriors Gem | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Insane Lifestyle | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Easter Music | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Z U Soon | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Clint Maroon (GB) | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Christian C | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Frost Or Frippery | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Memory Bank | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Full of Run | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Slick Silver | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Raggedy Doll Peach | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Two Turn Tammy | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hot Pepper Suzie | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Creal Dreamer | 1.60 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Emmastwinklingstar | 30.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Twelve Red Roses | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Kenai Cool | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Edisto Island | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dance | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lady Warrior | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Case Cracker | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Elizabeth’s Fever | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Constancia | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | No Boundaries | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bourbon Tan | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ihadadream | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tuff Attack | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Best You Ever Seen | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tornado Boy | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Overpraise | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Dark Wood (IRE) | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Standfortheanthem | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Colombard | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Al Taweel | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Maligator | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Valid Storm | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Alpha Boy | 20.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Charles T | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hide the Evidence | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Impeachableoffense | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Frontana | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Magi | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Canihaveitlikethat | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Clear to Close | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Canary Islands | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mister Charming | 20.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rough Justice | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Hook Her Up | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Melissani | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Talk Nice | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Temptation Eyes | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Me too Mo | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Summer Express | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Risky Risky Risky | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Rangoon Attack | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.