July 30, 2020 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Loran Holiday (ARG) | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Launch Away | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Northern Alliance | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Peace Love Bread | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Of Note | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Oriental Lady | 30.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Lady Magna | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Be Authentic | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Detour | 1.80 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rare Action Attack | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cooler Schedule | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Templesis | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Laverns Lass | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Point Streak | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Judy’s Way | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bourbon Rebellion | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Meeka | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Eye On the Finish | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hammered | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tiz Hoppin | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mora Valley | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Samis Car | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Annie Time Girl | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Get None | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | My Wife Is Boss | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Thirsty Cowgirl | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | American Biz | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Enchilada | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | True Loyalty | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Flight Time (BRZ) | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Dumbmark | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Mongol Bull | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Boom Box | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Long Station | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | He’s Dann Good | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Romeo O Romeo | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | King Richie | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Foggy Albion | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fast One | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Turfmeister | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | World Tax War (IRE) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Be an Inspiration | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bee Happy Attack | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Narration | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Keep Attacking | 4.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Can’t Say No | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tuff Attack | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Stormin El Prado | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | B Salty | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Forgot to Forget | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Gray Mensch | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Christmas Cookie | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | One Way Home | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Fall Moon | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Golden Star Lady | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Fate Factor | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Aunt Dorothy | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Aimara | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lemon Popper | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Light in the Dark | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Colorofacloud | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Muffins Revenge | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Forevernoa | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Better Angels | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | English | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.