July 29, 2020 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Critical Data (IRE) | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 5A | 5 | Global Freedom (GB) | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Anticipating | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2A | 2 | Sixty Five (FR) | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fast Car | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Emerald Rocket (IRE) | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Whitman’s Poetry | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gaye Breeze (IRE) | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Cross Keys | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Big Al’s Gal | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Belleza | 1.40 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Whippy Cream | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Whistlinginthedark | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Miss Ross | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Queentigua | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sander’s Empire | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Irena N Ella | 50.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Five Alarm Robin | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Stormy Derby Day | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Positive Skew | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Super Cute | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Quasar | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Make Or Break | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sky Kitten | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Tradeable | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Gea | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wicked Title | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | New Day Dawning | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4A | 4 | Ajhar | 1.20 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 5A | 5 | Ashiham | 1.20 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lucky Asset | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hometown | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Vicarage | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | First Line | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Zuzudini | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Dayatthespa S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Classic Lady | 1.40 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | War Canoe | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wegetsdamunnys | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Wish Upon | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Vortex Road | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Niko’s Dream | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Love and Love | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2A | 1 | Topper T | 3.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Pete’s Play Call | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Creative Style | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Thebigfundamental | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | American Power | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Clench | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Lone Rock | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | The Sicarii | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Reed Kan | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Sayyaaf | 1.60 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Kitten’s Cat | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Readyforprimetime | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Backtohisroots | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Ghoul (BRZ) | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Vici | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Secretary At War | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mick’s Star | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mad Munnys | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Releasethethunder | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Blackjack Davey | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bebe Banker | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Danny California | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dancers for Token | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Six Percent | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Microscope | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Forever Wicked | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Giant Shoes | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Too Early | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Wissahickon | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Devamani (FR) | 1.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Breaking the Rules | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gidu (IRE) | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Therapist | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Made You Look | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Just Howard | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Backsideofthemoon | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Its All Relevant | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6A | 6 | Sevnteeneightysevn | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Spectacularsunrise | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Zaccapa (FR) | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Let Them Eat Cake | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sequin | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Zero to Sixty | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mumbai | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Madam Maclean | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Venus Oyzo | 50.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | American Goddess | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.