July 26, 2020 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Advanced Strategy | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | More Like It | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Smite | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Saratoga Pal | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Silver Token | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Neuro | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shandian | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Otter | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Effinity | 1.60 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Judge N Jury | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Arrowheart | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bellamy Dolce | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Work Out | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chasing a Legacy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Road to Meath | 1.80 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mandate | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shootin the Breeze | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Chantry Flats | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Reckless Spirit | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Make a Stand | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Proquestor | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Alley Oop Johnny | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Starship Bubba | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Kid Chocolate | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Tikhvin Flew | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Heirloom Kitten | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 12 | Fleet Admiral | 50.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Fotis | 50.00 | 13.1 | 25-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Magical Tale | 50.00 | 13.1 | 25-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Oneshotatforever | 50.00 | 13.6 | 26-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | The Great Dansky | 1.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Victory Boulevard | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Double Shot | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cryptographer | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Liam’s Fire | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Justin Front | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | River Tiber | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Outadore | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mad Maddy | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Pitaman | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Fulco | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | American Gentleman | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hilliard | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Thorn | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | My Sea Cottage (IRE) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Cousteau | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Spicy Marg | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 8 | Cost Benefit (GB) | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Witez | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jazzique (IRE) | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Logic N Reason | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Eye of a Soldier | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Taranta (IRE) | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Crystal Glacier | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ginger Kitty | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Primacy | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Pop a Choc | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Miss Peppina | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | American Mandate | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Fast Getaway | 1.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Cryogenic | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Competitive Saint | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Morning Breez | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jake Rocks | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Frosted Rose | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Skipin On Orchard | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stage Left | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Happy Saver | 1.20 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | High Amplitude | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Summer Kid | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Basquiat | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Beau Luminarie | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Amani’s Eagle | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Family Biz | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Bernard Baruch H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Halladay | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Good Governance (GB) | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Olympico (FR) | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Somelikeithotbrown | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Seismic Wave | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mr Dumas | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Seize the Day | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Glynn County | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Turn of Events | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Prince of Caps | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Lord of the Nile | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Economic Policy | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dreamonmebaby | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bold Gem | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Faze | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Feeling Dangerous | 30.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Power Boss | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Montauk Summer | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Double Advantage | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Striking Speed | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Bubba Chuck | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Colloquist | 50.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.