July 23, 2020 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Stakes) – A. P. Smithwick Memorial Steeplechase S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Pravalaguna (FR) | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Moscato (GB) | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Surprising Soul | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Optimus Prime (FR) | 1.80 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Gibralfaro (IRE) | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Redicean (GB) | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Chief Justice (GB) | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Winner Massagot (FR) | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Belisarius (IRE) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Carthon | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Wonder In | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Take It to Scale | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Thomas Shelby | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Call the Cat | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Northern Haze | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hetty G. | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Invest | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Mo Normal | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Stunning Princess | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lost Lake | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Anamuya | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Plum Ali | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Uptown Flirt | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Aunt Mary | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – New York Stallion Series S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Fresco | 1.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Nicky Scissors | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dixie Cannon | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Holmdel Park | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Apollo’s Abraxas | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hunnybunnerdini | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Officer Hutchy | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Irish Front | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Instinctive Rhythm | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ahead of Plan | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | O’Trouble | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | New Frontier | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Anzio Beach | 10.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Flatter Me | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Joycee Haz Pizzaz | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Balon Rose | 1.60 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Simplicity (FR) | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Bareeqa | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Kelleycanrun | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Kitten by the Sea | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Pure Wow | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Joyous Times | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wild Love | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Primacy | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 5 | Bertranda | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Fierce Lady | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Puffery | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 8 | Cartwheel | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Quality Stones | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Prairie Fire | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 7 | Bustin to Please | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Big Q | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Jc’s Shooting Star | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Cathy Naz | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | My Roxy Girl | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Elegant Zip | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 2 | Awillaway | 30.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | French Reef (IRE) | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ethos | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Modesto | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Its a Wrap | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Union Colonel | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Call Home | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Souper Energizer | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kith | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Obsessed | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mihos | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Wendell Fong | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Admiral Lynch | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Honest Mischief | 1.60 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Captain Scotty | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bon Raison | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Deputy Flag | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 9 | Financialstability | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | No Lime | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Oh My Papa | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Continuum | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Prince of New York | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | More Than Striking | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mandatory Payout | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Principal Dancer | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | I Saw It All | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mine the Coin | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.