July 19, 2020 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Dr. Shane | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Dowse’s Beach | 1.80 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Banana Thief | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Power Up Paynter | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Royal Asset | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Valmont | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Bustin Shout | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Big Engine | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6A | 6 | New York’s Finest | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Playthatfunnymusic | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Sky of Hook | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Vicar’s Legend | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lazarus Project | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Deep Sea | 1.40 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hardcore Folklore | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Vineyard Sound | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Our Honor | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tale of Mist | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Swiping Dan | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Dovima | 1.20 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Witch Moon | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | In Front | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Halo City | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Golden Celine | 50.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Johnnie Merle (IRE) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Cherokee Song | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Twelfth Labour | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Releasethethunder | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Queen’s Mason | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | American Rule | 30.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ryan’s Cat | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Candy Cornell | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Thin White Duke | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Competitive Hero | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Martinez | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9A | 8 | Strong Desire | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wicked Easy | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10A | 9 | Mischievous Dream | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Data Deal | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Chargemydinner | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Count Frost | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Eagle Orb | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Work Out | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Effinity | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | Sentry | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Zero Gravity | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Financial System | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Kroy | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Lusitano | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Isotherm | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Noble Thought | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Willing to Speed | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Space Mountain | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Rapt | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Leitone (CHI) | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Lucifers Lair | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Iaintfraidanoghost | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Caldee | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Capstone Girl | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Peachy Queen | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Our Flash Drive | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dressy | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Trust Today | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Stone Town | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Baba | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Saratoga Love | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Light in the Sky | 1.80 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | My Sassy Sarah | 1.60 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Winifred J | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Officer Hutchy | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mz Seb Pat | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bull Feathers | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Appletini | 30.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Lake Placid S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Cat’s Pajamas | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stunning Sky | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lashara (GB) | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Speaktomeofsummer | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Blame Debbie | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Queens Embrace | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mirabell Mei | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Key Biscayne | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Malibu Pro | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Shadow Rider | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Scarf It Down | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Mills | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Control Group | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Street Trust | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Eden Ridge | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Armament | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Grit and Glory | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.