July 16, 2020 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | Sargeant Drive | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Jerome Avenue | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Rucksack | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Grit and Glory | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Guy Caballero | 2.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Castle Casanova | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Dooley | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Inclunation | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Dealin’ Stelen | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Price Talk | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Magic Mojo | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Eternal Summer | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Leading West | 3.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Fixation | 50.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | This Ill Defend | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Scanno | 3.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Zuzudini | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Bubba Chuck | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Mutakaamil | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Palomita | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Figure of Speech | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Palace Avenger | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Glass Ceiling | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Carrizo | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Dial Me Up | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Yes to Mischief | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Thrill | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Palace Duchess | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Escape Fund | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gran Chemin | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Valletta | 2.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Steam Engine | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Thorny Tale | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Big Engine | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | The Caretaker | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dark Money | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Kazmania | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Nueva York | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Leaky Cup | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Propensity | 2.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | No Bad Days | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Onthewingsoflou | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Spitball | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Point of Humor | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Knockout Punch | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 10B | 10 | Mr Everything | 3.50 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sir Chubby | 6.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Camouflaged Kisser | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tiz Envy | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 11B | 11 | Grandmas Favorite | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Tri Saint Lorenzo | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Verify | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Brees Bayou | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16A | 16 | Colloquist | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6A | 6 | Bayern’s Mirage | 30.00 | 15.5 | 29-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Astoria Kitten | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Giacosa | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Pandamom | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Marquet Legacy | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Summer At the Spa | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pecatonica | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ava K’s Girl | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Minit Maus | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Sky Kitten | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Noble Jewel | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Schuylerville S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Beautiful Memories | 1.20 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Queen Arella | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dayoutoftheoffice | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hopeful Princess | 2.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Quinoa Tifah | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Make Mischief | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hara | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sunny Isle Beach | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Peter Pan S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Country Grammer | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Celtic Striker | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Candy Tycoon | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mystic Guide | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Modernist | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Chestertown | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mo Hawk | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Caracaro | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Katzarelli | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Secure Connection | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Doll | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Quasar | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Rousey | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Aunt Nadine | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tradeable | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Grudge | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Alley to Calvary | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Siena’s Ticket | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Summer Fortune | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Bourbon ‘n Ditch | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Shannon’s Girl | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Mz Seb Pat | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.