July 12, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Faded Rose | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Right to Freedom | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Basilia | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mania | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blissful Change | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lilac Lace | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Carson’s Kitten | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Superhelpful | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cool Enough | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | She Likes Daisies | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Carimba | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Kitten With a Whip | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Blue Grass Anna | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Girl Daddy | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Queen Ofthe Temple | 30.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kitten Rocks | 30.00 | 11.9 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Urban Insight | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Sugar Love | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Recoded | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Destiny’s Darling | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Queen Bess | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Josie | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Lele | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Digital Software | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Parkland | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Summer Palace | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | East Lex | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Midnight Jostar | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tolkien | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bold Quest | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Carmel Bay | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fan Favorite | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Crown the Prince | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Curls and Bows | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Could You | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kisses for Heidi | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Free | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Slainte | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Media Mendacity | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bobine de Fil | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Beach House | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Morocco | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bird’s Eye View | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Empire of War | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sabador (FR) | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Chaps | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kaziranga | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lost in Limbo | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Celerity | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Market Rumor | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Heavenly Sis | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Flatoya | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Aunt Dorothy | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Tormenta | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Just a Look | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | My Favorite Day | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Kentucky Utilities Transylvania S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Vintage Print | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Field Pass | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fancy Liquor | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Bama Breeze | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Irish Mias | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Street Ready | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Spanish Kingdom | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Kinenos | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | City Man | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Juggernaut | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kentucky Ghost | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Nitrous | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | C Z Rocket | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mr. Money | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Copper Town | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | True Timber | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 9 | Borracho | 20.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mojo Man | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fact Finding | 15.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Two Thirty Five | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Home Base | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | The Tabulator | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Heartwood | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Whitmore | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Tvg Elkhorn S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Oscar Dominguez (IRE) | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Arklow | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nakamura | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Zulu Alpha | 1.60 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | He’s No Lemon | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Postulation | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Ry’s the Guy | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Jais’s Solitude | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Henley’s Joy | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Apreciado | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hellorhighwater | 50.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ramsey Solution | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Hierarchy | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.