July 11, 2020 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Looking At Liberty | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Civil Servant | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dynacharge | 4.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mau Mau | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Copper King | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 9A | 9 | Twenty Twice | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4A | 4 | Rogue Element | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kid Shelleen | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Twelve Rocks | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Wolfhand | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Therideofalifetime | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Swill | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Little Alex | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Palazzi | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Directional | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Snake Doctor | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Plonder | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Catipari | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Leblon | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shell Shocker | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Fire At Will | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Gator Romp | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Brutus | 30.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Mundaye Call | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Crown Jewel | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tipsy Gal | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Golden Curl | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Nayibeth | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Perfect Happiness | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Sense of Place | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | She Can’t Sing | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tortuga | 10.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Vanilla Bean Back | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Slam Dunk | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Letters to Belle | 20.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Remanded | 20.00 | 13.6 | 26-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Appalachian S. Presented By Japan Racing Association
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Walk In Marrakesh (IRE) | 1.80 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Alms | 1.20 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Enola Gay | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Evil Lyn | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mariafoot (FR) | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Passion Factor | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Madison S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Mia Mischief | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bell’s the One | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sally’s Curlin | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Amy’s Challenge | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Unique Factor | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Guarana | 1.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wildwood’s Beauty | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Diamond Crazy | 50.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Princess Causeway | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Shakertown S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Wildman Jack | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Extravagant Kid | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Texas Wedge | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fast Boat | 8.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Leinster | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Totally Boss | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Tiger Blood | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bound for Nowhere | 2.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Real News | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tell Your Daddy | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Smart Remark | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Nitrous | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 13 | Shared Legacy | 50.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Just Might | 50.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Corruze | 50.00 | 13.9 | 26-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Central Bank Ashland S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Speech | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Envoutante | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Venetian Harbor | 1.20 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bonny South | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Alta’s Award | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tonalist’s Shape | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Coolmore Jenny Wiley S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Jolie Olimpica (BRZ) | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Secret Message | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mucho Unusual | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rushing Fall | 1.20 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Toinette | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Altea (FR) | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Juliet Foxtrot (GB) | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | La Signare (FR) | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Toyota Blue Grass S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Tiesto | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Big News | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Art Collector | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shivaree | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Enforceable | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Swiss Skydiver | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Rushie | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Finnick the Fierce | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Basin | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Attachment Rate | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Man in the Can | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Hunt the Front | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hard Lighting | 50.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Kuora (PER) | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Romantic Pursuit | 1.40 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Joy of Treasure | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Summer in Saratoga | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4A | 4 | Latest Version | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 7A | 7 | Wildlife | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Delta’s Kingdom | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mighty Scarlett | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Coco Channel | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Speedy Solution | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Gamblin Train | 30.00 | 8.7 | 17-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.