June 28, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Hashtag Winner | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Addison | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lemon Chill | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Miss Important | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Jo Marie | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Templuna | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Joy’s Rocket | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Prodigy Doll | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dream Quist | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rock Out | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Trip to Seoul | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Carson’s Kitten | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mania | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Alpha Storm | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | My Girl Lexi | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Baytown Emmalee | 20.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lollygag | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Ruby Round Here | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Road Game | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Something Natural | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Candy Store | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Artemus Eagle | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Storm Runner | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Social Afleet | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | See the Pyramids | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tiz Mischief | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | J Z My Man | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Approved | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Chasing Anna | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Britannia Kitten | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kid Shelleen | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Paynter Party | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Willfred | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Blankenbaker | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kinzea Stone | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Instigated | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Mr. Unusual | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6A | 4 | Disciple | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Bear Oak | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Gypsy Wife | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Peerless Brown | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8A | 6 | Old Sot | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Ahsad | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Jacks Fire Balls | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Itasca | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | On d’Oro | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Seven and Seven | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 5 | Lonely Private | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6A | 4 | Cardiac Kitten | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 11A | 6 | Artemus Citylimits | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | American Butterfly | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Tohui | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | American Mandate | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | More Than A. P. | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Shared Legacy | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Limnery | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Ikeisgreat | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | First Wave | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Baby Karats | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Gun It | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Signalman | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Croatian | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Thirstforlife | 15.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Franknjymme | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Top Seed | 2.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rated R Superstar | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Our Alibi | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Risky Mandate | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Talk Veuve to Me | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lady T N T | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mae Never No (IRE) | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Peruvian Appeal | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Divine Queen | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Unique Factor | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Istan Council | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Shanghai Tariff | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Skamania | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Golden Star Lady | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 17 | 6 | Extra Effort | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Magic Motion | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Leftatthealtar | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Posh Princess | 20.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Golden Loch | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | I Hear You | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Sista of War | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Twitterpated | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | East of Eden (IRE) | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Lovers Quarrel | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Elke Do Jaguarete (BRZ) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Demora | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Ithaca Falls | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Country Time | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Urbana | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Saintsation | 30.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.