June 27, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Sea Garden | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Curls and Bows | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Purrfectly Claire | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lucky Find | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Raison d’Etre | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sovereign Appeal | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tracing Gold | 20.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Parade Field | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hawaakom | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Curlin Grey | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Frost Or Frippery | 1.60 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Degrom | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Altito | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Exemplar | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Red Again | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Zero Gravity | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Clint Maroon (GB) | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kurilov (CHI) | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Discovered | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lusitano | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nero | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hemp Hemp Hurray | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ransack | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1A | 12 | Super Dude | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Honovi | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Treasure Trove | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Strolling | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Nautilus | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Windcracker | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Medicine Tail | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Whiskey Double | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Holland | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Notary | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Halcyon Digest | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Run Rabbit | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Mr. Banyan | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Saint Vrain | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Enraged | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Ashiham | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bakers Bay | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Amani’s Eagle | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tonaltalitarian | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pit Boss | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Belfast Boy | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Mulberry Street | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | All About Will | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | It’s Mandatory | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Paris Lights | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Enjoyitwhilewecan | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ria Munk | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tipsy Gal | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stop Shoppin Tammy | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Coldwater | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Crazy Sexy Munny | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Second Coming | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lemon Chill | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Impeccable Style | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 8 | Ghoul (BRZ) | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 5 | Wellabled | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 6 | Captain Scotty | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Corruze | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 10 | Holiday Stone | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Carotari | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 4 | Just Might | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Fareeq | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Smart Remark | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 9 | Gray Attempt | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Bashford Manor S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Gatsby | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hulen | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | County Final | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cazadero | 1.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hyperfocus | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Herd Immunity | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Crown and Coke | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Fleur De Lis H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Serengeti Empress | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Another Broad | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Chocolate Kisses | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Motion Emotion | 15.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Midnight Bisou | 0.60 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Go Google Yourself | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Red Dane (ITY) | 50.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Stephen Foster S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Owendale | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | By My Standards | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tom’s d’Etat | 1.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Multiplier | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Silver Dust | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pirate’s Punch | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fearless | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Alkhaatam | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Regret S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Crystal Cliffs (FR) | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dominga | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Micheline | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | In Good Spirits | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Harvey’s Lil Goil | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Pass the Plate | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Eve of War | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Witez | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Edgee Angel | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Stunning Sky | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Hendy Woods | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Wexx | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 2 | 2 | His Glory | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.