June 26, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Spikes Shirl | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Top Brass | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nomo Ron | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hold Me Black | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Around the Dial | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lady’s Weekend | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Flat Lucky | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sharp Art | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Stay Home | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Midnight Cocktail | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fabricate | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Yogurt | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bahama Mischief | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fortuna Adiuvat | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1A | 8 | Wendy’s Fine Wine | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Tiz a Bit Lucky | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 2 | Miss Sky Cat | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Locally Owned | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gigging | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | All West | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Beau Luminarie | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Quality | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | What a Country | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Job Security | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hombrazo | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Messina | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Majorette | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Wild Love | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Angel de Cora | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Skyhawk | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Risotto | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | She’s a Deal | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Never Forget | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Glamour Girl | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Chocolate Bar | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cleveland Simpson | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Tiz Light the Way | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Reigning Spirit | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Freedom’s Flight | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Shaka | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mau Mau | 4.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Aztec Empire | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Highland Boss | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | It’s Mandatory | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Stock Deal | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Tolkien | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | All About Will | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Deanos Cape | 20.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ahnaf | 20.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 6 | Natural History | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Hidden Promise | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Unthrottled | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Queen’s Mason | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Continuum | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lucky Bode | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Automate | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bahama Channel | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tiz Our Turn | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Saratogian | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Soaring Bird | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Dinar | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Chess Chief | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Intrepid Heart | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Plus Que Parfait | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Blueridge Traveler | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Almithmaar | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Jungle Warfare | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Seek the Peak | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Proverb | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fort Peck | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kaziranga | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Thirstforlife | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Top Seed | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Gun It | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Croatian | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Mr Dumas | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mr. Misunderstood | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Snapper Sinclair | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Doctor Mounty | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Spectacular Gem | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Get Western | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Great Wide Open (IRE) | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Seven Trumpets | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Made You Look | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Holiday Stone | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Gray Attempt | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | First Premio | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Two Thirty Five | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Waiver Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 7 | Teenage Kicks | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Master of Domain | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Queen Licia | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Beach House | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Not a Needy Gal | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zippy Ki Yay | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Katie’s Belle | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Bow Down Tewmey | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Osprey Court | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Better Than Pearls | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Dulce Maria | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Vanilla Mice | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.