June 25, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Hands Up | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Better With Age | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Our Secret Agent | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gold Button | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Wellington Wonder | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sally O’Brien | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Funnybet | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Gone Glimmering | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Magine | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | West Bank Baby | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Persian Queen | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Orb’s Soul | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Panterita | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Kertara | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Holly Go Lightly | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Zabava | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Diamondcoat | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Foxtail | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mad Grace | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Strollin the Bayou | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dutch Treat | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Miss Altamira | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Martial Eagle | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Holy Muchacho | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gum Tree Lane | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Galindo | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tiz McNamara | 4.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Quana Dude | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Majors Vindication | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Zapper Van Winkle | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Jack Luvs Nova | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Digital Star | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bucky | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Shaw | 4.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Stick Figure | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pyser’s Orb | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mine Own Star | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vinum | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Zurlin | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fancified | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Screenwriter | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Domonette | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Angel of Mischief | 3.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Cirrusly | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Originator | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Flashy Biz | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Take Charge Cacky | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lil Miss Hot Mess | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Quiet Company | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Shackleford County | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Rushingirl | 20.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Tiz Ella | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rockin Ready | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | High Regard | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sara Sea | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Goodbye Earl | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Figure It Out | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shacklette | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | He Hate Me | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bourbon Calling | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Arthur’s Hope | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Admiral Lynch | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Line Judge | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Seven Nation Army | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mucho | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Madison’s Luna | 50.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Absolutely Aiden | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Daddymademedoit | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Longpants Required | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Flabbergasted | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jeweled Princess | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ship’s Creek | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Violenza | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Loaded | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Well Respected | 10.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Audrey’s Attitude | 10.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Fashion Mo | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | I Hear You | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Elke Do Jaguarete (BRZ) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Golden Loch | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Sursum Corda | 12.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.