June 21, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | The Rock Says | 1.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tikhvin Flew | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cool Bobby | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stealth | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Revenio | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Strike Appeal | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Blues Power | 2.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | As Required | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Onenightstandards | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Call Papa | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Barrel Proof | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Smooth Music | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cowboy Hippie | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sister Lulu | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ignite the Night | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Above Board | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | High Risk Strategy | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Summer Revolution | 2.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Here’s Carlos | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Knights Key | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rocko’s Wheel | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bear Trappe | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kristi’s Copilot | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Lady Cleopatra | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Seeds of Time | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mongolian Humor | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Miz Shelton | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lexington Grace (IRE) | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Moonlight Train | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sun Dress | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Pure Sugar | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Money Well Spent | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stylish Ash | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tetrahydro | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lizzie B | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | More Moet Pleez | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Prado Amore | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Unexpectedly | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mavalous Mavalous | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Actress On Board | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Annie’sgoldengirl | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 4 | Dreamalildreamofu | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | How Ironic | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Ivyetsu | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 6 | Hey Kitten | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Auction Fever | 30.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Urban Fairytale | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Evil Lyn | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | A K’s Song | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Battleofwinterfell | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Edgee Angel | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Osaka Girl | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Secure Connection | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | New Day Dawning | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Hashtag Winner | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Sneak Peek | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Stop Shoppin Tammy | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Shelley’s Gem | 50.00 | 14.5 | 27-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Lanse Mitan | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Spin Lightning | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Not Now Rand | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Uncle Momo | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Atmos | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | To the Front | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | True to Dixie | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Creekmore | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Out Cold | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Critic | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rustic Rick | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | C Z Rocket | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Shashashakemeup | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9A | 8 | Hollis | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Pete’s Play Call | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Rubus | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | K J’s Nobility | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Malpais | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | By Your Side | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Guest Suite | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10A | 5 | Lounge Act | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Joy Epifora (ARG) | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Shesomajestic | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Lady Kate | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Frond | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 6 | Molto Bella | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tapit Today | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Harmless | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5A | 5 | Complicit | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Summering | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Strike My Fancy | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | High Regard | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Looking At Liberty | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Copper King | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Coastal Defense | 6.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Falkirk | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Backshot | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Civil Servant | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Wartime Hero | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Newscaster | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Decision Maker | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Uncle Kick | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Tartufo | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.