June 20, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Epic West | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Ugo | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Conquistador Show | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sigesmund | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Embellisher | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Suspect | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Boss Hugo | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Spelling Bee | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Apple Empire | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Judge Johnny | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Right the Wrong | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Flatten | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Napoleon’s Empire | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Roaring Fork | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Darren’s Fortune | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lagoon Macaroon | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Paynt Your Eggs | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Come On Venezuela | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Homefortheweekend | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | Motagally | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Hellorhighwater | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Onarock | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Hackberry | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Attorney Tim | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Where’s Oliver | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Moon Over Miami | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mantra | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Buy Me Candy | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | King Theo | 15.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Strong Tide | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Proquestor | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Beau Luminarie | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | El Ahijado | 20.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Bantu | 20.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Movie Moxy | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Madame Overserved | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Congratulated | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tuff Bird | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Belleinthecity | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Partylicious | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bellucci | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Speighty Shirl | 10.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Norma Jean B. | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Duplicitous | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Readyformycloseup | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Diamond Crazy | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Unfading Beauty | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Spitefulness | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Gold Credit | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Royal Priority | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Take Charge Erica | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Audubon S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Field Pass | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Summer to Remember | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Pixelate | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Kinenos | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bama Breeze | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Natural Power (IRE) | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fenwick Station | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Spanish Kingdom | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Cigar Box | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 15 | 12 | Reelfoot | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Ace Destroyer | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Royal Commission | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Nice of Me | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | K W Captain Flint | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | My Golden Diablo | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Subdued | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Greater Cairo | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Uncle Gregory | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Point to Dunkirk | 10.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | City Front | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Critic | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Special Reserve | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Soaring Bird | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Nashvegas | 15.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Union Maiden | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | April in Paris | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Madison Parc | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Heavenly Sis | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Valletta | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Market Rumor | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Irrepressible | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Areemaa | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Willyoubemine | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tormenta | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Skykat | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Speightful Charge | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Wise Dan S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Parlor | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Aquaphobia | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Factor This | 1.60 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | March to the Arch | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | English Bee | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Just Howard | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Emmaus (IRE) | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Casa Creed | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ritzy A. P. | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Eons | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Hembree | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Ten Flat | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Yaupon | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mountain Air | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Quality Warrior | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Savvy | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lucky Asset | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Tenderfoot | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Arareco Lake | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hometown | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Winging Ways | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | League of Legends | 12.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Oceanic | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | New Frontier | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Poppy’s Prize | 30.00 | 11.2 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Big Dreaming | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bullseye Bun | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Carmichael | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Midnight Jostar | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Distorted Moon | 6.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Beaver Hat | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cornbread Kingdom | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cibolian | 15.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Hillbilly Deluxe | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Chocolate Bar | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Parkland | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | The Falcon | 20.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Real Man | 20.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Contractor Bill | 20.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.