June 18, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | A Lot of Spunk | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Admiral’s Garnet | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Overdressed | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Abhaile | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | My Guatemalan Girl | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Jamin’s Jet | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mini Dress | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Gran Confusione | 15.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Love’s Tavito | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Decaf | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Empire Trolley | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Cashanova | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | War Film | 1.60 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Shining Through | 5.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Jumper | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sun Lover (GB) | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Frankincense | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Believeinholidays | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Light of the World | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Briar Jumper | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Big Beautiful Wall | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | One Last Strike | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Candy Store | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Johny’s Bobby | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Perfect Beam | 30.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Formula | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | It’s All Cash | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mesange | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Lavalier | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Anglico | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Ebony Bay | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Illusionista | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Union Song | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | A Real Gem | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lynne T | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Thank You Girl | 50.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Joker Lady | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Patty H | 1.80 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mad Maddy | 1.40 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Puye Timing | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Longdrinkofwater | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tete a Tete | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Some Nights | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | No Mo’ Spending | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Kitten With a Whip | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Faded Memories | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Big Time | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Wendy’s Fine Wine | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Zebra Cake | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Fashion Frame | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mi Bella | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Delachaise | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Queenofcatniphill | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Lil’ Shopper | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | I Saw Her First | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Abounding | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | China Cat | 3.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Double Oaked | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dixie Moll | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Shackleford’s Joy | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Angelus Warrior | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lontano | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Letmeno | 5.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mr. Quality | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Acre | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Juggernaut | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Social Afleet | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Strong Tide | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mister Not Funny | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 7 | Flap Jack | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 12 | Bee Catcher | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Self Taught | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Botero | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Johnny Cab | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 10 | 10 | I’m Busy | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | His Giant | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mine My Time | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Our Philly Special | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Creme de Cerise | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jamming Cameron | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Visionary Tale | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Picasso | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Father G | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hidden Talent | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Wild Popit | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tank Commander | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Don Vito Corleone | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Get the Prize | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Vanbrugh | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Extrordinary Jerry | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dontblamerocket | 2.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Penalty | 4.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Midnight Tea Time | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cullum Road | 5.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ivar (BRZ) | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Argentello (IRE) | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Flying Scotsman | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sharp Prospect | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Great Wide Open (IRE) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Golden Dragon | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Title Ready | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.