June 14, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Annmaria | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lele | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wises Landing | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Factor Around | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Free | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lady O’Prado | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sweet Willemina | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Love My Honey | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bonnet | 1.80 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Forty Nine Model | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lil Miss Hot Mess | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Elle Factor | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | War Ballad | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Tidal Effect | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | See the Pyramids | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Soul Beam | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | River Finn | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Yamano Maker (JPN) | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dealin’ Stelen | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Jimmy At Last | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hitthegroundrunnin | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Port Hunter | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Ihadadream | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Arabian Story | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Big Biz | 8.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Clifton Park | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | McShady | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Golden Rule Haven | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Magic Mo | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fast Recovery | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Battle of Ramadi | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Fig Jelly | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Chaos Theory | 2.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | I Can Do Anything | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Battle Station | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Chaps | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bye Bye Birdstone | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Jazzy Times | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fareeq | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Early Mischief | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Secretary At War | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Powell | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tommytom | 30.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Rubus | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Flight Time (BRZ) | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Tres Equis | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Match Play | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Crush It | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Junior Gilliam | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ceeky | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Red Blue and True | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Guska Mon Shoes | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Long On Luck | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Pete Marwick | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Fridaynitestar | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7A | 7 | Hero for Hire | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Carina | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Heavens Whisper | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | J D’s Girl | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6A | 6 | Big Base | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Princess Trina | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Its Cold in Dehere | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sunset Paula Jo | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Mintd (IRE) | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Magic Star | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Catch a Bid | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Wildlife | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Delta’s Kingdom | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Temple City Terror | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Solar Kitten | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Aunt Hattie (IRE) | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mighty Scarlett | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Makealitlemischief | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Sister Hanan | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Sara Sea | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13A | 13 | High Regard | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | High Proof | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Banks Island | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Toledo | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Well Connected | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | American Butterfly | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Background | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ancient Warrior | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Prince Jersey Town | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shippingport | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Night Time | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Gray Blur | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Beverly Park | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Lonely Private | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Duplicity | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Oak Hill | 10.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Born Great | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hoof Prince | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Highland Boss | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Master Ryan | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Scoby | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Substantial | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sky Ride | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Asher’s Music | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Jupestar | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Button Box | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.