June 13, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Chicks for Free | 1.40 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Highest Mandate | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mr. Pickles | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Citi Charm | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cavatina | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | El Casadora | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Count Frost | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dauer | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Grand Deal | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Rahway | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Grats Road | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Molly’s Game | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Colorincolonel | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Fun Paddy | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Urban Kat | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Catty Krys | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Silvertail | 50.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cook Memories | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Blunt Force | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | French Rose | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Heaven Escape | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | She Wants More | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | All Fact | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Isabelle’s Joy | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gianna’s Gift | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Timely Miss | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Flatoya | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Millennium Force | 2.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Healthful | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bestow | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Claudette Nonstop | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Skyhawk | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jim’s Bronze Star | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Girl Named Patsy | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Sail On Ellen | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | War for Peace | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | My Destiny | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Media Mendacity | 30.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Audrey’s Attitude | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Purrfectly Claire | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Lustica | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Congratulated | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Necker Island | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Finnick the Fierce | 1.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Shared Sense | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Art Collector | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | John’s Rock | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Ebben | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Twelfth Labour | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Runnin’ Ray | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Pyron | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Make Noise | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tiz Mischief | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Chasin Charlie | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tut’s Revenge | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Rare Form | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Eisenstaedt | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Croatian | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Popular Kid | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Degrom | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hardly a Secret | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Eskenforit | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Full of Run | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | December Seven | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Queen of Shades | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | V J’s Bet | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hidden Facts | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | She’s All Skeet | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dixieincandyland | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dance Rhythms | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Even Beat | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bayerly Seen | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Holiday Time | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | More | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Reenie D | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Royal Priority | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Lady Worthington | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 1 | Major Attraction | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 11A | 11 | Fast Cash | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bucky | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Company Clown | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Blackthorne | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shanghai’s Dream | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | The Drake | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bubba Caballo | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Sir Alfred James | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | My Name Is Phred | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Can Imagine | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Beckenbauer | 20.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Scolding | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Remanded | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Brittle and Yoo | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Figure of Speech | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Joysome | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Miss T Too | 3.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | She Can’t Sing | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Compelling Smile | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Recoded | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sconsin | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Shadilee | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Banker’s Candy | 50.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Spitefulness | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Four Grands | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Louisville S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Tiz a Slam | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Arklow | 1.60 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Admission Office | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Apreciado | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | He’s No Lemon | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Perfect Tapatino (FR) | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Jais’s Solitude | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sky Promise | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Ry’s the Guy | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Fearsome (GB) | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Golden Dragon | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lombo | 30.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.