June 12, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Drop Dead Gorgeous | 1.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Flashback Bear | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Rozafa | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Champagne Affair | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Excelerita | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Her Giant | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Luscious | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Better Angels | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Supreme Irene | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Hulen | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Looting | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Little Alex | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Candy Mover | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Our Commish | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Seattle See Ya | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Baytown Bear | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tiz a Bit Lucky | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Really Slow | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Fast Boat | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6A | 5 | Copper Town | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Just Might | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Bulletin | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Maniacal | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Fielder | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2B | 2 | Tell Your Daddy | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Smart Remark | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Little Kansas | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Madison’s Luna | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5B | 4 | Elusive Mischief | 8.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Oro de Tejano | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Galindo | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Admire | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Martial Eagle | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Daddy’s On Strike | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Trashtalkinyankee | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Just Like Richie | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Instigated | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Ronamo | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pow Wow Prince | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Vasariano | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Yashima | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ekati’s Verve | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Seven and Seven | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Swing West | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Liberty’s Pursuit | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Bear Oak | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | El Franco | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Brush Dog | 30.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Draw the Line | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Mr. Unusual | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Jacks Fire Balls | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Set Piece (GB) | 1.80 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Limonite | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Krewe Chief | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ballagh Rocks | 1.40 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Carom | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Uncapped | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mick’s Star | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Forloveofcountry | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Celerity | 50.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Dunph | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Heros Reward | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sacred Oath | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | The Great Dansky | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hidden Ruler | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Majestic West | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Living Vicariously | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | He’s a Babe | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Earner | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Oxide | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Man in the Can | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hunt the Front | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Wrecking Crew | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sharecropper | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Dean Martini | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Giocare | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Violent Pass | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Extraordinary | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kadesh | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Fort Knox | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Mr. Quality | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Skyscanner | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15A | 15 | Dack Janiel’s | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Greyes Creek | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Digital Software | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Rochambeau | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Britannia Kitten | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lastchanceatglory | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Twenty Twice | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Fortuity | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Full Authority | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tolkien | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Final Breeze | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Midnight Jostar | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Distorted Moon | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Copper King | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Food and Wine | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Criminal Defense | 20.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.