June 11, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Town Drunk | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Firehorn | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cadron Flats | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Swither’s Shortcut | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Quest for Fire | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sparkys Surprise | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Southsider | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | American Indy | 1.60 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Thoughtfully | 1.40 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Prodigy Doll | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Golden Glass | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Trip to Seoul | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Clear Steps | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1A | 9 | Little Empire | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Summer War | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Naughty Nellie | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Elusive Ride | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lemon Chill | 1.60 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Addison | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | C’Est Mardi | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sweet Carolina | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lady McKenzie | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | She’s Hot Today | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Good Clean Fun | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Siete Leguas | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Taino House | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Yamato | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | White Wolf | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mr. Class | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Brother Martin | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Archrival | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Itasca | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bourbon Bryce | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Charge the Line | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Touching Rainbows | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hard Belle | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | P R Radio Star | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hoonani Road | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Boyfriend Material | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Pat Daddy | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Durango Kid | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Vintage Print | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Pleasecallmeback | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fancy Liquor | 1.80 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Elusive Ruler | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Austrian | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Unthrottled | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Blanket of Roses | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | King Theo | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 9 | Prodigious Bay | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 10 | Extraordinary | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 11 | Dean Martini | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Golden Notion | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Comedian | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Hersh | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | And Seek | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Youngest of Five | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Firery Tale | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Grove Daddy | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hidden Talent | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Soaring Bird | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Morning Gold | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Impeccable Style | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Aurelia Garland | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Seattle Slang | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Velvet Crush | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Elusive Molly | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bourbina | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Broadway Lady | 2.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | More Than Unusual | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tizahra | 2.50 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rearrange | 6.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 18 | 18 | Complete Surprise | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Good On Paper | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | April in Paris | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Irrepressible | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Willyoubemine | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Shell Shock | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | A Little Voodoo | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Magic Motion | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Abramax | 12.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Take Charge Patti | 12.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | U S S Lexington | 12.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Aimara | 12.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Justleaveitalone | 15.00 | 13.6 | 26-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Light in the Dark | 15.00 | 14.7 | 28-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.