June 7, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Have No Fear | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | No Interest | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Backseat Promises | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Champagne Bling | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Dichotomy | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Indicating | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Reachreachreach | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Northern Connect | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | High Risk Strategy | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Whole Lotta Luck | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Kearny County | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Kristo | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | All About Ashley | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Long On Luck | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Italian Charm | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Red Again | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Street to Indy | 1.60 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Petrov | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lionite | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Courting a Kiss | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Undercover Lover | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bantu | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Zaevion | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 10 | Kitten’s Romance | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Quiet Company | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Andiama | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Garden Affair | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sense You Left | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Miss Paco Lemon | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Stylish Ash | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Nomiraclesneeded | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Niva | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Show Maid | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Light in the Dark | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Bless Em | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Gray Nay | 20.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Take Charge d’Oro | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | River Echo (GB) | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Ruler of the Nile | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Exemplar | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Chop Chop Charlie | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | I Will Stand | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Solomonic | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Ernie Banks | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Celerity | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Strut the Ring | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Much Better | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Travelling Midas | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Free Enterprise | 1.40 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Nifty | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Prince Pierce | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Horse Doctor | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Chaps | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Fashionable Lady | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Elle Z | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Listen Up | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lead Guitar | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kilbarry Lady | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kodikova (IRE) | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tulanian | 12.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shilah Baby | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bentley’s Dream | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Baby Karats | 50.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Headfirst | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Inis Gluaire | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Chasing Anna | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | High Cruise | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Belfast Boy | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dark Web | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | The Feature | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Bourbon Trail | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Trident Hit | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Mulberry Street | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mine That Star | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Willfred | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fugitive | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Full Authority | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Lone Sailor | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Scars Are Cool | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | My Sixth Sense | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Rated R Superstar | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Flowers for Lisa | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Roiland | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Core Beliefs | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Bourbon Resolution | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Alkhaatam | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lenstar | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Alfons Walde (IRE) | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Peddlers Pride | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Carmel Bay | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Front Man | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Two by Two | 4.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | A. K. Safari | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tiz Light the Way | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fiftyfive Strong | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Ahsad | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pip’s Brassy Boy | 20.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Cornbread Kingdom | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Fan Favorite | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Sunrise Kitten | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Better Tapit | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.