June 6, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Lady by Choice | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Holly Go Lightly | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Unfading Beauty | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Take Charge Erica | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sweet N Wicked | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Liz’s Cable Girl | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Bossy Moment | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Sunny Isle Beach | 1.80 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Ambitiously Placed | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Decaf | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | I’ll Make It Coach | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mania | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Carson’s Kitten | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Miss Magdalena | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ruby Round Here | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Miss Sky Cat | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Gentle Ruler | 0.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | English Affair | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Romantic Pursuit | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Vexatious | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Juliana (PER) | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Over Thinking | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Joy Nidera (ARG) | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Another Broad | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Island Song | 1.60 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Brother Aaron | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Fantastry (BRZ) | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Litany | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mobilization | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Celtic Mischief | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Whiskey Chaser | 15.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Flug | 20.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Skatingonthinice | 20.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Breakaway Prince | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Mr. Class | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Yamato | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Egobuster | 20.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Count Your Pennies | 20.00 | 11.4 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Magic Man’s Touch | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ugo | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Booyakasha | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Loan Shark | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Queen’s Mason | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Noble Companion | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Baudette Blizzard | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Harding Park | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Two Dot | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Flatten | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ingenico | 50.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Professional | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Laddie Boy | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Candy Carlos | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Conquest Lemonraid | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Altito | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | One Mean Man | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | House Limit | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Pinson | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Mark My Way | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | On Patrol | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kearny County | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Red Again | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | It’s Mine | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Majestic Blend | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tipsy Gal | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kapiolani | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Skinny Dip | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | America’s Surprise | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Extra Effort | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Free Cause | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Shelby’s World | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Aristides S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Honest Mischief | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Heartwood | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bobby’s Wicked One | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Volatile | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Manny Wah | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Seven Nation Army | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | High Crime | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ikeisgreat | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Alfie Solomons | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Tohui | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Johnny Unleashed | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ace Destroyer | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | News Flash | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Man Flintstone | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Royal Commission | 12.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | More Than A. P. | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Cardiac Kitten | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Shared Legacy | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | American Mandate | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Williston Way | 15.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Dogwood S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Naughty Thoughts | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Four Graces | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Edgeway | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bayerness | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Magic Dance | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ain’t No Elmers | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Clivetty | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lady Glamour | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sport’n Forty | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Queen Medb (IRE) | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fate Factor | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Urbana | 3.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sharethegoodtimes | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Golden Loch | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Risotto | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stand Tall | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Elke Do Jaguarete (BRZ) | 20.00 | 8.7 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Speightful Charge | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Lipstikliesnlovers | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Willyoubemine | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | She’s a Deal | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.