June 4, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Skyvalue | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dehydration | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Foreign Exchange | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | French Rose | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Trafficiskillingme | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Heart River | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sophia Regina | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Ready to Charm | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Urbanite | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Urban Light (IRE) | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lord Dragon | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Majors Vindication | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Holy Muchacho | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Delp | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Heza Handful | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Tiz McNamara | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Easy Tiger | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Freshman Class | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Candy Bizzness | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Countless Fun | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Flashy Biz | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bionic Rosie | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Shesonspeeddial | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wicked Valentine | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Carefree Highway | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 9 | Illegal Smile (IRE) | 2.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Road to Romance | 1.80 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Little Jewel | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Midyear | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tobys Heart | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Some Nights | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Ever Clever Lady | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Scat’s Choice | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Couger | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Scarf Queen | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Lolas Creed | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Mini Musketier | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Prodigy Doll | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Mania | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Kowboy Karma | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Spikes Shirl | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Silver Ride | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | El Asesino | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Stay Home | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sharp Art | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Saturday Tryst | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lady’s Weekend | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Botero | 1.20 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Super Terrific | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Lanse Mitan | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Rustic Rick | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | The Sheik of Araby | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Tom’s Last General | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | True to Dixie | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Piantagrane | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Baquero Flies | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Hitthegroundrunnin | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Sammys Dream | 20.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Channel Crossing | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Chapel Barn | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Jimmy At Last | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Out Cold | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Botswana Taps | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Scabbard | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Sea of Hope | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Labeq | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mantra | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Counter Offer | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Moon Over Miami | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dack Janiel’s | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lake Nakuru | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Discovered | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Onarock | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Bantu | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | El Ahijado | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Adhhar | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Nepal Up | 30.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Guarana | 0.60 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lady Suebee | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Please Flatter Me | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Peruvian Appeal | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sunny Dale | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Headland | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Bohemian Bourbon | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Abounding Joy | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Unique Factor | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Kid Shelleen | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dreamonmebaby | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | American Humor | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Greenback | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 16 | 12 | Bourbon Wisdom | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Higher Authority | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shaw | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | First Citizen | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dyess | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Buy It | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Captain Billy Roy | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Benelux | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Eastern Symphony | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Noble Companion | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Baudette Blizzard | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Ugo | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.