May 29, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Jungle Warfare | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1A | 2 | Shivermetimbers | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Fort Peck | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 4 | Curlin Rules | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 8 | Heavy Roller | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 3 | Ebben | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 6 | Super Dude | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 5 | Lusitano | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Gypsy King | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Knicks Front | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Nautilus | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Cazadero | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Medicine Tail | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Orb of the Boro | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | Really Slow | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Dauer | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Smooth Music | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | El Casadora | 50.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Paquime | 50.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | New York One | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Our Commish | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | County Final | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Flight Time (BRZ) | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Lil Mateo | 3.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Guska Mon Shoes | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Homeview | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Bud Ro | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Most Mischief | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Old Timer’s Day | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Champsachamp | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | My Prophet | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Fridaynitestar | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Proven Warrior | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Can’t Say No | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Ceeky | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Carter Cat | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Rain Drop Kid | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Red Blue and True | 50.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Coworker | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Roaring Fork | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zing Zang | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Paddy O’Dini | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Victory Element | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Tom Management | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dooley | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Its Yes | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Warrior’s Dream | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Darren’s Fortune | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fighting for Grace | 30.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Healing | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Lemon Blitz | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Twinkling Knight | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Witch Doctor | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Tobacco Road | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Automate | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | River Finn | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Shackleford’s Joy | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mishko | 2.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Special Day | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fortheluvofbourbon | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Memorable | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sugoi | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Self Taught | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bahama Channel | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | King of Ranch | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | New Eagle | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Woopigsooie | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Carpe Victoriam | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Cherokee Maiden | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tempers Rising | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Strong Flag | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Envoutante | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dreamalildreamofu | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Second Coming | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Harmony Victory | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ria Munk | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Curlinesque | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Hog Creek Hustle | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Borracho | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rare Form | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Bourbon Calling | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Troubling Moon | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Boldor | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Early Mischief | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Home Base | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lexitonian | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Absolutely Aiden | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | K J’s Nobility | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Manny Wah | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Honest Mischief | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Arthur’s Hope | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Volatile | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Minecraft Maniac | 30.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Leinster | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Extravagant Kid | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ghoul (BRZ) | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Totally Boss | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Carotari | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bulletin | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Real News | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Wilbo | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Wellabled | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dubini | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Heartwood | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Elusive Mischief | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Fast Boat | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Just Might | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Seven Nation Army | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Irish Spirit | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | To the Front | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Heros Reward | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Alex’s Strike | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bebop Shoes | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Uncle Momo | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Big Bluff | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Nice of Me | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Animate | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Predator | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Out Cold | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.