May 28, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Comedian | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | And Seek | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Soul Beam | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Samaronti | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hail to the Chief | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Fever Temple | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cigar Box | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Just Like Richie | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Bossy Moment | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Beautiful Memories | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Blue Grass Anna | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tiz a Bit Lucky | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Hard to Access | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Great Jazz | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Long Monday | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Love’s Tavito | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Yogurt | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Wendy’s Fine Wine | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pam’s Avery Rose | 30.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Scat’s Choice | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Quiet Dawn | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | China Cat | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Double Oaked | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Girl From Berlin | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dixie Moll | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Longleggedlaverne | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Be Authentic | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Pepper Them Girl | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | I Saw Her First | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Divine Dharma | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 10 | Mr. Unusual | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Gambit | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Rayo de Luz | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Unimaginable U | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Fast Recovery | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Golden Rule Haven | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Pharaoh’s Kitten | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Herbies Toys | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | River Stones | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Be an Inspiration | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Happy Go Lucky | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Smart Arch | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Clifton Park | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | A King’s Ransom | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Litany | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Private Boone | 50.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Weightlessness | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Grats Road | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Yes I’m Evil | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Kimberley Dream | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Crazy Sexy Munny | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lucky Be a Lady | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | She’s No Drama | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Big Blue Magic | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Heavens Whisper | 1.20 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Flash n’ Dance | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Urban Kat | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | My Dark Secret | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Peace Love Bread | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Colorincolonel | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | No Interest | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Fun Paddy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Honovi | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Vettori Kin (BRZ) | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zero Gravity | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Exulting | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Logical Myth | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Clear for Action | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ezmosh | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Firewater Jake | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Memory Bank | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Eisenstaedt | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Patriot Drive | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Discovered | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | He Will | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Moon Over Montana | 20.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Punish | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Bonnet | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Princess Phone | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mi Bella | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jo Marie | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | I’mthekatsmeow | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Delachaise | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Catlike | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Rare Action Attack | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Marcie’s Candy | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Carondelet | 30.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Sprawl | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Portos | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Unshaken | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Locally Owned | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dukes Up | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tikhvin Flew | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Don Vito Corleone | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | All West | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hombrazo | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Quality | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Silver Ratio | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | Play On | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Morticia | 1.80 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Girls Know Best | 1.60 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Unbridled Class | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Change of Control | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Jo Jo Air | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Miss Gossip (IRE) | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Midnight Fantasy | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Spring in the Wind | 50.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 1A | 15 | Break Even | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Go On Mary | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Mt. Brave | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Mae Never No (IRE) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Tia Flor | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Take Charge Angel | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Deanos Cape | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | Smart Call | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Smirk | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Port Hunter | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Second Line David | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Quarterback Dak | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ekati’s Verve | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Draw the Line | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jacks Fire Balls | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Kickin’ Kirby | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Boss Life | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Percher | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1A | 16 | Higher Authority | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Peerless Brown | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | First Citizen | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | El Franco | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.