Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, May 22, 2020

May 22, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 11 Sheriff Bianco 3.50 4 8-1
1 1 Cowan 3.50 4.6 9-1
7 7 Breaking the Bank 10.00 6.4 12-1
11 10 Back Ring Luck 10.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Petit Verdot 15.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Really Slow 15.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Cuz 8.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 Candy Mover 15.00 6.9 13-1
10 9 Little Alex 20.00 7.3 14-1
13 12 Seguro 20.00 7.7 15-1
6 6 Baytown Bear 20.00 7.8 15-1
5 5 Kissin Alex 20.00 8.7 16-1
9 9 Spicy Marg 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Runnin’ Ray 3.50 2.6 5-1
5 4 Holy Muchacho 4.00 3.5 7-1
7 6 Oro de Tejano 3.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Galindo 3.50 3.7 7-1
1 1 Martial Eagle 12.00 4 8-1
9 7 Whata Show Off 10.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Daddy’s On Strike 15.00 5 9-1
4 4 Ice Chest 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Trashtalkinyankee 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Hardly a Secret 3.50 2.7 5-1
10 10 Lionite 4.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Around the Dial 5.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Spokane Eagle 3.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Top Brass 8.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 California Swing 15.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Tap Fever 20.00 7 13-1
8 8 Shakes Creek 15.00 7.1 13-1
3 3 Sevier 15.00 7.3 14-1
12 12 Flat Lucky 12.00 8.6 16-1
11A 11 Wagon Boss 20.00 9.1 17-1
4A 4 He Takes Charge 20.00 9.8 19-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Spelling Bee 4.50 2.1 4-1
11 7 Taino House 5.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Brother Aaron 4.00 2.5 5-1
8 5 Archrival 4.00 2.7 5-1
12 8 Rivers of Lite 3.50 3.4 6-1
9 6 Commissario 12.00 4.9 9-1
15 10 Jerzees One 15.00 5.4 10-1
13 9 Arch Dreamer 20.00 6.3 12-1
3 2 Awinbeneathmywings 20.00 7.8 15-1
4 3 Trueno 30.00 10 19-1
2 2 Yamato 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Judge Parker 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 In the Game 30.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Bourbon Bryce 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Postimpressionist 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Celtic Mischief 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 7 Sweet Carli 2.00 1.5 3-1
6 4 Champagne Bling 15.00 3.2 6-1
8A 5 Princess Trina 6.00 3.4 6-1
9 6 Sturdy One 2.50 3.7 7-1
3 1 Pure Sugar 8.00 3.9 7-1
5 3 Bit Money 15.00 4.3 8-1
13 10 Darlin Rosie 8.00 4.6 9-1
11 8 Tolly Ho 15.00 5.2 10-1
12 9 Go Stellaire 30.00 6.9 13-1
4 2 Drama Run 30.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 Smokin Hot Momma 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 My Girl Rocket 50.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Jets a Ginnin 6.00 SCRATCH
14A 14 Have No Fear 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 8 Seven and Seven 4.50 2.4 5-1
1 1 Brother Martin 5.00 3.2 6-1
6 5 Tactician 4.00 3.3 6-1
5 4 Changing Lanes 5.00 3.4 6-1
9 7 Fantastry (BRZ) 4.50 3.5 7-1
13 11 Arabian Story 5.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Autumn Jett 8.00 4 8-1
14 12 Fork Union 6.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Revenio 15.00 6 11-1
11 9 Big Biz 20.00 6.5 12-1
7 6 Battle of Ramadi 15.00 6.8 13-1
12 10 Whiskey Chaser 20.00 8.7 16-1
4 4 He’s Reckless 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Zarmae 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Why Why Paul Why 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Natural History 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Telekinesis 4.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Real Money 4.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Chewing Gum 3.50 3.3 6-1
3 3 Riverboat Gambler 4.50 4 8-1
10 10 Fig Jelly 3.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Frosted Ice 20.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Pyron 12.00 7.1 13-1
2 2 American Heritage 20.00 9.4 18-1
9 9 Capture the Glory 30.00 9.8 19-1
11 11 Lost in Limbo 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Maniacal 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Bye Bye Birdstone 8.00 SCRATCH
14A 14 American Mandate 4.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Hop Kat 4.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Onemoregreattime 3.50 SCRATCH
17A 17 Zipp On By 4.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Tut’s Revenge 30.00 12.1 23-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 3 Center Aisle 1.20 2.1 4-1
6 4 Casual 2.00 3.6 7-1
7 5 Nayibeth 10.00 3.8 7-1
3 2 Recoded 15.00 4.4 8-1
13 10 Dawn’s Dancer 20.00 5.2 10-1
12 9 West Bank Baby 30.00 5.7 11-1
11 8 Shadilee 15.00 6 11-1
2 1 Roadrunner’s Honor 15.00 6.1 11-1
9 7 She Can’t Sing 20.00 6.6 12-1
8 6 Persian Queen 30.00 7.2 14-1
1 1 Four Grands 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Ancient Brown 30.00 SCRATCH
10 10 I Was Looking Up 50.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Palace Avenger 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Hard Legacy 3.50 3.6 7-1
1 1 Summering 4.50 3.7 7-1
8 7 Silver Kitten 3.00 4.7 9-1
9 8 Malakeh (GB) 2.50 4.8 9-1
7 6 English Affair 10.00 5 9-1
6 5 Rogue Too 12.00 6.9 13-1
3 2 Complicit 15.00 7.2 14-1
10 9 Strike My Fancy 20.00 8.1 15-1
11 10 Miss Altamira 30.00 8.4 16-1
5 4 Molto Bella 30.00 9.5 18-1
2 2 Frond 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Viadera (GB) 2.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Morning Molly 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Spring in the Wind 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Kay Bee Gee 8.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Little Red Frog 12.00 3.6 7-1
9 8 R Lukki Song 6.00 4 8-1
8 7 Duplicitous 3.50 4.2 8-1
10 9 Forty Nine Model 8.00 4.6 9-1
12 11 Just Fly 8.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Readyformycloseup 8.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Sirenic 12.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Henny Fly 10.00 5.6 11-1
11 10 Lucky Quarters 12.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Spitefulness 30.00 9.1 17-1
7 7 Fully Aware 5.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Magine 3.00 SCRATCH
14 14 French Rose 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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