May 22, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | Sheriff Bianco | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cowan | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Breaking the Bank | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Back Ring Luck | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Petit Verdot | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Really Slow | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cuz | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Candy Mover | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Little Alex | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Seguro | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Baytown Bear | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kissin Alex | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Spicy Marg | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Runnin’ Ray | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Holy Muchacho | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Oro de Tejano | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Galindo | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Martial Eagle | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Whata Show Off | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Daddy’s On Strike | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ice Chest | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Trashtalkinyankee | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Hardly a Secret | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Lionite | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Around the Dial | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Spokane Eagle | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Top Brass | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | California Swing | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Tap Fever | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Shakes Creek | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sevier | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Flat Lucky | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 11A | 11 | Wagon Boss | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| 4A | 4 | He Takes Charge | 20.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Spelling Bee | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Taino House | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Brother Aaron | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Archrival | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Rivers of Lite | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Commissario | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 15 | 10 | Jerzees One | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 9 | Arch Dreamer | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Awinbeneathmywings | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Trueno | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Yamato | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Judge Parker | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | In the Game | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Bourbon Bryce | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Postimpressionist | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Celtic Mischief | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 7 | Sweet Carli | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Champagne Bling | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8A | 5 | Princess Trina | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Sturdy One | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Pure Sugar | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Bit Money | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Darlin Rosie | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Tolly Ho | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Go Stellaire | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Drama Run | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Smokin Hot Momma | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | My Girl Rocket | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Jets a Ginnin | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14A | 14 | Have No Fear | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Seven and Seven | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Brother Martin | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tactician | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Changing Lanes | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Fantastry (BRZ) | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Arabian Story | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Autumn Jett | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Fork Union | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Revenio | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Big Biz | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Battle of Ramadi | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Whiskey Chaser | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | He’s Reckless | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Zarmae | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Why Why Paul Why | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Natural History | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Telekinesis | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Real Money | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Chewing Gum | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Riverboat Gambler | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Fig Jelly | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Frosted Ice | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pyron | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | American Heritage | 20.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Capture the Glory | 30.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Lost in Limbo | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Maniacal | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Bye Bye Birdstone | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14A | 14 | American Mandate | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Hop Kat | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Onemoregreattime | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17A | 17 | Zipp On By | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Tut’s Revenge | 30.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Center Aisle | 1.20 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Casual | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Nayibeth | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Recoded | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Dawn’s Dancer | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | West Bank Baby | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Shadilee | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Roadrunner’s Honor | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | She Can’t Sing | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Persian Queen | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Four Grands | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Ancient Brown | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | I Was Looking Up | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Palace Avenger | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Hard Legacy | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Summering | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Silver Kitten | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Malakeh (GB) | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | English Affair | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Rogue Too | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Complicit | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Strike My Fancy | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Miss Altamira | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Molto Bella | 30.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Frond | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Viadera (GB) | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Morning Molly | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Spring in the Wind | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Kay Bee Gee | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Little Red Frog | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | R Lukki Song | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Duplicitous | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Forty Nine Model | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Just Fly | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Readyformycloseup | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sirenic | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Henny Fly | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Lucky Quarters | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Spitefulness | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fully Aware | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Magine | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | French Rose | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.