May 21, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Youawakemysoul | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Seguro | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Tequila Queen | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cool Enough | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Longdrinkofwater | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Mad Maddy | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Prettyhappy | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1A | 13 | Tiz a Bit Lucky | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 9 | Double Whopper | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Hopeful Princess | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Shake It Out West | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Summer War | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | My Margaret Anne | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | I’m Corfu | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | T Loves a Fight | 2.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mannford | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Splash for Gold | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Big Thicket | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Barry Lee | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Stay Home | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ruler of the Nile | 3.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Zaevion | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sharp Art | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Gypsy Wife | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Beauty Day | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Revealing Quality | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Stylish Ash | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Drop Dead Gorgeous | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | English Escort | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Magically Honored | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Strong Work | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Nessum Dorma | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lavalier | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rozafa | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Union Song | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Hyndford | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Bootlegger (FR) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Spatetacular Joe | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Spikes Shirl | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Summer Revolution | 2.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ernie Banks | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Solo Drink | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Junior Gilliam | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Senor Friday | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | All About Ashley | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sun Brown | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Yes I See | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 10 | Kristo | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Get Em Up Scout | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Obtained | 30.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Too Fast to Pass | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | Grade | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Quest for Fire | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Come On Venezuela | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Felipe | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | His Giant | 2.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Jersey Agenda | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stayonthegrind | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Big Iron | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Cadron Flats | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Southsider | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Feeling It | 4.50 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Vineyard | 6.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Horsefeathers | 10.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Intonation | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Firehorn | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | United Stand | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Roaring Fork | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 11 | Blue Steel | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | El Rubio | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Curlin Grey | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | On Patrol | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Italian Charm | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hooray for Harvey | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | High Risk Strategy | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Frost Or Frippery | 2.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Overzealous | 3.50 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Valycove | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mineyerownmalone | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Candy Asset | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Calculated Risker | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Lesley’s Song | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Dalika (GER) | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mentality | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Devant (FR) | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Fame Feather | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Devils Dance | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | More | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Holiday Time | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | V J’s Bet | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Harmless | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Winandyourin Gin | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Stylishly | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | I’llhandalthecash | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Reenie D | 15.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Addison | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Lady McKenzie | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | La Negrita | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Moorac | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Princess Phone | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Spun Eazy | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Classy Justice | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Complete | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | B Sky High | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Channel Princess | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Vanbrugh | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Journeyman | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Louder Than Bombs | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Mr Dumas | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Lone Sailor | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Moon Colony | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ritzy A. P. | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Jais’s Solitude | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Clint Maroon (GB) | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Casa Creed | 4.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ivar (BRZ) | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Federal Law | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Front Run the Fed | 1.60 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Alkhaatam | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Royal Mesa | 15.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | K J’s Nobility | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | Bless Em | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sacred Union | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Garden Affair | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Thomasville | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Joker Lady | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Soothing | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sense You Left | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Eden | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Flashing Red | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | She’s a Deal | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Hashtag Winner | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Wrinkles Your Nose | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.