May 17, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Night Orchid | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Easy Tiger | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Bionic Rosie | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Money Well Spent | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Liam’s Lookout | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Common Courtesy | 2.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Orb’s Soul | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bow Down Tewmey | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Sweet Kat | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Signify | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Tap N Sway | 12.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Native Charm | 15.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Gotta B the Salsa | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 11 | Temrik | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Seminole Sisters | 20.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fox Frey | 20.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | Cubbie Bear | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 12 | Hetty G. | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Traci’s Greeley | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rathrbluckythngood | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | So Aristocratic | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mi Chachis Intenta | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Heart River | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Temperance Road | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 11 | A Wicked Wildcat | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tarnish | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Abounding | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Stellar Stiletto | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Red Jersey | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Naughty Factor | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Olive U | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Boomerang Baby | 50.00 | 11.9 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | Sharp Art | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Mine My Time | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Rockshaw | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blinded Vision | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 15 | 11 | Fascilitator | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Codetowin | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Powerful Ally | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 10 | Hold Me Black | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | P R Radio Star | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Grab the Munny | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | State Treasurer | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Tough Stuff | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Fuel the Bern | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Scarf It Down | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Deep Sea | 15.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Saturday Tryst | 20.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | Irish Pharaoh | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Duopoly | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Leftatthealtar | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Flabbergasted | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Luck Money | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Well Respected | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Cat’s Pajamas | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 18 | 18 | Eden | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Flying the Colors | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 19 | 19 | Garden Affair | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Valletta | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Sista of War | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Fate Factor | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Indawin | 12.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Three Flamingos | 12.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Teller to Sing | 15.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 20 | 20 | She’s a Deal | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Favorite Sin | 20.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Urbana | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Moonlight Dancing | 30.00 | 15 | 28-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | El Franco | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Yashima | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Smirk | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Bourbon Wisdom | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Elite Class | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dean Martini | 2.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Whata Perfect Day | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Liberty’s Pursuit | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Niles Channel | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Hoffa | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Obiwan | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stock Deal | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Bear Oak | 30.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | My Primo | 30.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | Mississippi | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Candy Store | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mo Zone | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 8 | Knight’s Cross | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Never Even Called | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 6 | Honoring Major | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Rucksack | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Witch Doctor | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Tobacco Road | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Go Uncle Bob | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 7 | Macha’s Reward | 30.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Unity | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 19 | She Can’t Sing | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Quiet Dignity | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Devious Charm | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fierce Scarlett | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Private Beach | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Puca Penny | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Claudia Jean (IRE) | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 17 | 17 | Bourbina | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Temple City Terror | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lost Ticket | 4.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Edgee Angel | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Duchess of Sussex | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mission From Elle | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 18 | 18 | Second Coming | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Well Spent | 20.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Confessing | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Glamour Gal | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Sister Hanan | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Las Ramblas | 50.00 | 14.8 | 28-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Compelling Smile | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Between the Hedges | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Don’t Mine Me | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Raggedy Annie | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Wicked Title | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Blinkers | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mama Don’t Preach | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Queenofcatniphill | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | City Fun | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Templuna | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Letters to Belle | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Wrecking Crew | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Toledo | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Man Flintstone | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Art Collector | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | He’s a Babe | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Acre | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mr. Shortandsimple | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Patrol | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8A | 7 | Olson | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Juggernaut | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Victory Boulevard | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | King Theo | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 13A | 13 | Sense of Justice | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Maven | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Guildsman (FR) | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Four Wheel Drive | 2.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Johnny Unleashed | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 9 | Chimney Rock | 5.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jack and Noah (FR) | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 18 | 18 | Banks Island | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Bango | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Race Driver | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Jamming Cameron | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Hopeful Treasure | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Williston Way | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 12 | Kierkegaard | 20.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 17 | 17 | Hop Kat | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | The Gray Blur | 30.00 | 13.1 | 25-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | City Front | 30.00 | 13.5 | 26-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Betchaiwill | 30.00 | 13.6 | 26-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Alec and Arthur | 30.00 | 15.2 | 29-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Bubba Caballo | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Chasing Anna | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Toshio | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hoof Prince | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kowalski | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Belfast Boy | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Uncle Kick | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Whisky Man | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Entertainment | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Peddlers Pride | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Danzar | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | New Frontier | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Prince Jersey Town | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Real Man | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | The Feature | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Bourbon Native | 30.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.