Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, March 21, 2020

March 21, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Stakes) – Crescent City Derby

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Sydster 3.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Langs Day 3.50 2.9 5-1
3 3 Atta Bouy 4.50 3.1 6-1
5 5 City Park 5.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Jax Man 5.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Freedomfi 8.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Kai Baby Kai 10.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Luckenbacher 12.00 7.7 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 12 Dreamalildreamofu 3.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Fate Factor 5.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Flabbergasted 6.00 3.7 7-1
12 11 Sunset Stroll 10.00 4.8 9-1
10 9 Legal Limit 10.00 4.9 9-1
11 10 Global Brand 10.00 5.7 11-1
16 14 Trash Panda 10.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Sansa’s Vow 12.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Well Respected 10.00 6 11-1
7 7 My Precious 12.00 6.6 12-1
2 2 My Heart Sings 12.00 6.6 13-1
14 13 Incarnation 15.00 8.8 17-1
9 9 Widow of Nain 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Taylor’s Lightning 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Saturday Sun 20.00 10.3 20-1
8 8 U S S Lexington 20.00 10.6 20-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Crescent City Oaks

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Steph’sfullasugar 1.40 2.6 5-1
6 5 Vacherie Girl 4.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Quikfast N Ahurry 6.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Oh Toodles 6.00 3.6 7-1
5 4 Saber Cut 8.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Georgia Dawn 20.00 7.3 14-1
7 6 Jet Sweep 20.00 8 15-1
4 4 Sebs Princess 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Suggested 4.50 2.5 5-1
8 8 Templet 5.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 Spanish Kingdom 6.00 4.4 8-1
15 15 Small Talk 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Urbanite 12.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Koko Star 10.00 12.1 23-1
10 10 Fortuity 10.00 12.7 24-1
4 4 Barleewon 12.00 14.4 27-1
6 6 Governale 12.00 14.5 27-1
1 1 Imperial Moment 12.00 14.8 28-1
11 11 Mighty Heart 12.00 15.2 29-1
5 5 Brew Crew 12.00 15.2 29-1
14 14 Kinzea Stone 12.00 15.5 29-1
13 13 Elvis’s Joy 12.00 15.9 30-1
12 12 Reigning Spirit 12.00 16.2 31-1
2 2 Leading the Charge 12.00 16.9 32-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Charge the Line 3.50 2.3 4-1
3 3 Southern Swagg 6.00 3 6-1
11 10 Reckless Ransom 5.00 4 8-1
9 8 State Treasurer 6.00 5.3 10-1
8 7 Scarlettsblackjack 10.00 7.7 15-1
12 11 Release the Beast 12.00 8.6 16-1
10 9 Forerun 12.00 9.1 17-1
6 5 Saltee Stark 12.00 9.6 18-1
4 4 Asongforyou 5.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Bistraya 5.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Letithappencarlos 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Prizeless 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Cajun Chaos 15.00 10.4 20-1
7 6 Greeley Went West 15.00 10.6 20-1
1 1 Temprano 20.00 14.9 28-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Costa Rising S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Monte Man 3.50 3 6-1
14 12 Letithappencarlos 6.00 3.1 6-1
9 8 Yankee Seven 6.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Win Lion Win 6.00 4.7 9-1
6 5 Afleet Ascent 8.00 5.8 11-1
11 10 In the Navy 8.00 6.4 12-1
4 3 Future Ruler 10.00 7.3 14-1
12 11 Eden Grey’s Kitten 10.00 7.3 14-1
8 7 A Song for Arch 10.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Treys Midnite Moon 10.00 7.7 15-1
3 3 Fame Feather 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Laughingsaintssong 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Inspector Eddie 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Bertie’s Galaxy 6.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Mr. Priority 20.00 14.5 27-1
10 9 Grand Luwegee 20.00 14.7 28-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Mystic Guide 3.50 2.4 5-1
9 9 Cernan 4.50 3.3 6-1
12 12 Man of Honor 5.00 3.4 7-1
1 1 Verb 6.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Steely Danza 8.00 5 9-1
4 4 Reprobate 6.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Quana Dude 10.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Amani’s Eagle 12.00 8.2 15-1
10 10 Decision Maker 20.00 10.8 20-1
11 11 Buy It 20.00 10.9 21-1
6 6 Brother Martin 20.00 11.2 21-1
2 2 Malahini 20.00 12.3 23-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Tom Benson Memorial S. Presented By Dixie Beer

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Winning Envelope 4.50 2.1 4-1
2 2 Altea (FR) 3.50 2.2 4-1
1 1 Dream Passage 4.50 2.7 5-1
8 8 She’sonthewarpath 6.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Notapradaprice 8.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Joy Nidera (ARG) 8.00 4.3 8-1
11 11 Santino 12.00 6 11-1
4 4 Fullness of Life (IRE) 12.00 6.1 12-1
10 10 Desert Ride 12.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Strike My Fancy 12.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Flower Party (IRE) 20.00 9.9 19-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – New Orleans Classic S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Silver Dust 2.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 By My Standards 6.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Lone Sailor 6.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Fearless 4.50 3.8 7-1
9 9 Gun It 6.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Chess Chief 8.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Captivating Moon 10.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Tenfold 12.00 8.3 16-1
2 2 Sonneteer 15.00 8.5 16-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Muniz Memorial Classic S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 11 Synchrony 3.00 1.6 3-1
6 5 Instilled Regard 5.00 3.2 6-1
8 7 Channel Maker 6.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Dot Matrix 8.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Rockemperor (IRE) 10.00 5.8 11-1
9 8 Factor This 10.00 6.5 12-1
3 3 Dontblamerocket 12.00 7.5 14-1
2 2 Aquaphobia 12.00 7.7 15-1
11 10 Marzo 15.00 9.3 18-1
5 5 Captivating Moon 15.00 SCRATCH
13 12 Bundibunan 20.00 11.5 22-1
7 6 Henley’s Joy 20.00 11.9 22-1
10 9 Secretary At War 20.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Finite 0.60 1.9 4-1
4 4 Bonny South 4.00 2 4-1
3 3 Tempers Rising 4.50 2.6 5-1
5 5 Stop Shoppin Tammy 8.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Antoinette 12.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 French Rose 20.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Enforceable 3.50 1.8 3-1
14 14 Modernist 6.00 2.5 5-1
13 13 Silver State 6.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Major Fed 8.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 Portos 8.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Wells Bayou 8.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Royal Act 10.00 4 8-1
11 11 Ny Traffic 15.00 5 10-1
4 4 Chestertown 15.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Mailman Money 15.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Shake Some Action 15.00 6.1 11-1
7 7 Sharecropper 20.00 6.2 12-1
12 12 Lynn’s Map 30.00 9.3 18-1
15 15 Mr. Big News 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Farmington Road 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Social Afleet 50.00 14.5 27-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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