Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, March 21, 2020

March 21, 2020 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Vero Sun 1.20 1.2 2-1
2 2 Star of the West 3.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Splitting Eights 4.50 2.2 4-1
3 3 Little Mazzy 8.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 Lost in Rome 8.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Due West 10.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Broadway Joe 30.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Seediskid 30.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Freudian Analyst 50.00 8.5 16-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Super Silver 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 Our Last Buck 3.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Traveling 3.50 1.7 3-1
6 6 Kumar 3.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Starting Point 6.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Vineyard Sound 20.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Cicada S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Two Sixty 1.60 1.2 2-1
5 5 Ilchester Cheetah 2.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Spanish Point 3.50 3.3 6-1
4 4 Miss Marissa 4.00 4 7-1
3 3 Cofactor 6.00 4.3 8-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Captain Frost 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Nileator 3.50 1.3 2-1
1 1 War Bridle 6.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Diamond Setter 3.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Wild About Deb 4.50 2.8 5-1
7 7 So Sublime 12.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Proud Enough 15.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Booby Trap 30.00 8.3 16-1
6 6 Sparty Boy 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Count Di Luna 1.60 1 2-1
8 8 Mental Model 3.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Papa Jim 4.50 3 6-1
5 5 Dr. Devera’s Way 8.00 4 8-1
9 9 Mandatory Payout 10.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Kadens Courage 12.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Bob in Our Midst 20.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Principal Dancer 15.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Coolboy 20.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Running Violence 30.00 9.3 18-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Danny California 1.60 1 2-1
5 5 Yankee Division 2.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Moonlight Now 6.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Tizgame 8.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Run for Boston 6.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Shock Therapy 8.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Brown Eyed Boy 20.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Dancin Debbie 6.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Trouble for Skylar 3.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Magari 10.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 Zecha 4.50 3.7 7-1
2 2 Exceed the Goal 5.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 World Riot 8.00 4.1 8-1
11 11 Volodina 8.00 4.6 9-1
5A 5 Cobra Sophie 12.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 My Last Million 12.00 5.8 11-1
6A 6 Cotton Candy Cutie 12.00 6.3 12-1
12 12 Lightning Lilly 20.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Princess Mikayah 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 The Last Ace 2.50 1.2 2-1
6 6 Giant Shoes 5.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Tapizearance 4.50 2 4-1
3 3 Titan’s Will 8.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Microscope 8.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Notorious Flirt 10.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Double Shot 6.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Bellarmine Hall 10.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Forever Wicked 15.00 6.1 11-1
10 10 Varangian 30.00 8.3 16-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Queenofeverything 1.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Miss Ross 6.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Goosarella 12.00 4.3 8-1
14 14 Keep Dreamin 8.00 4.3 8-1
11 11 Angels and Us 10.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Funny Pursuit 15.00 5 10-1
1 1 Wanna Be Regal 15.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Pretty Fabulous 15.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Our Lady of Winloc 20.00 7.1 13-1
10 10 Love and Luck 30.00 8.7 16-1
12 12 Maqua Dawn 30.00 8.7 16-1
13 13 Rebel Empress 30.00 10.6 20-1
4 4 City Bird Flying 50.00 14.7 28-1
16 16 Helmers Run 50.00 14.9 28-1
5 5 Molly’s Shrink 50.00 15.9 30-1
15 15 On to Cincinnati 50.00 16 30-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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