Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, March 15, 2020

March 15, 2020 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Cause 3.00 1.2 2-1
7 7 Danegeld 3.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Dutchmen Forever 2.50 1.7 3-1
1 1 Long Island City 4.50 2.3 4-1
3 3 Kid Chocolate 6.00 3 6-1
6 6 Von Aldenbruck 12.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Emcee Prime 20.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Shadow Caster 20.00 7.9 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Make Or Break 1.80 1 2-1
2 2 Vibrancy 2.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Hot Little Honey 3.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Chaysenbryn 6.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Becky’s Mission 8.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 All About Reyana 12.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Valid Quest 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Dan the Man Can 3.00 2 4-1
3 3 Cryptographer 2.50 2 4-1
2 2 Future Book 3.00 2 4-1
6 6 Judiths Cougar 10.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Stone Guitar 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Timely Tradition 2.50 2 4-1
2 2 Letmetakethiscall 1.80 2.1 4-1
7 5 Archumybaby 3.50 2.3 4-1
3A 3 Zecha 12.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Bustin to Please 4.00 2.8 5-1
8A 6 First Forever 12.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Linda’s Ballet 12.00 SCRATCH
9 7 Ella’s Song 20.00 3.8 7-1
4 3 Peaches and Spice 50.00 8.8 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Saratoga Pal 2.00 1 2-1
4 3 Slash Gordon 3.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Wardenofthenorth 4.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Devil’s Code 4.50 2 4-1
1 1 Microsecond 5.00 2.4 5-1
7 6 Stash My Money 12.00 4.3 8-1
5 4 Ganondagan 30.00 7.8 15-1
8 7 Book of Delancey 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Our Last Buck 3.00 1 2-1
9 8 Tiz Morning 4.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 The Joke’s On You 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Sneads 4.50 2.9 6-1
3 3 Bebe Banker 4.00 3 6-1
7 6 Quiet Out East 6.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Soul Fight 15.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 My Amanjena 20.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Awesome Adversary 15.00 7.7 14-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 High Amplitude 1.40 1.4 3-1
7 6 Scoreswhenhewants 2.00 1.5 3-1
5 4 Hersh 6.00 3 6-1
6 5 Freedom Prince 6.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Flying Curlin 10.00 3.6 7-1
3 2 Shadow Rider 8.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Hizaam 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Damon Runyon S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Bourbon Bay 3.50 1.3 2-1
4 4 Scilly Cay 3.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 Dream Bigger 3.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 More Graytful 4.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Chowda 5.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Prince of Pharoahs 6.00 4 8-1
7 6 Titan’s Will 12.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Gandy Dancing 3.00 1.1 2-1
8 8 Ernie Banker 2.50 1.5 3-1
2 2 Not Phar Now 2.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Farragut 8.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Midnight Whiskey 6.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Unbridled John 15.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Senrima 12.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Black Irish 50.00 6.7 13-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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