Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, March 14, 2020

March 14, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Afleet Roger 2.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 He’s a Climber 5.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Silent Cry 4.50 4.1 8-1
8 8 Zartastic 4.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Jennovodka 8.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Prime Hook 12.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Dyna Ghost 10.00 6.1 12-1
6 6 Cabo Headache 12.00 7.6 14-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Amphibian 6.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Clever Racer 6.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Speedactus 6.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Malasong 3.50 5.1 10-1
7 7 Highly Centsable 5.00 5.5 10-1
10 10 Here Comes Homer 6.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Round Quarter 12.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Sidney’s Hunch 12.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Yes My Son 20.00 7.7 15-1
8 8 Classic Heath 15.00 7.9 15-1
12 11 Callmechamp 30.00 8.8 17-1
11 11 Roses n’ Rubies 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Fleet Run 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Grand Ty 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Millennium Force 3.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Listen Up 3.50 3.2 6-1
6 6 Jim’s Bronze Star 4.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Three Quarter Time 8.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Go Tweet 8.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Hands Up 8.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Stormy Merlot 12.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Pink Posse 12.00 5 10-1
9 9 Texas Promo Girl 12.00 5.2 10-1
10 10 Half Dialed 20.00 7.1 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Lord Colliery 4.00 3.5 7-1
11 10 May Hour 6.00 4.1 8-1
1 9 Oliver’s Prayer 10.00 4.9 9-1
7 6 Such 10.00 5.2 10-1
10 8 Whistling Wind 10.00 5.6 11-1
12 11 Aw Shucks 6.00 5.8 11-1
6 5 Alma Derby 6.00 5.8 11-1
5 4 Lion Rampant 8.00 5.9 11-1
2 1 Cat On the Roof 10.00 6.4 12-1
4 3 Heart Warrior 20.00 6.6 12-1
3 2 Caeus in Pasadena 30.00 8.3 16-1
1A 13 Smooth Man 10.00 SCRATCH
9 8 See Carlos Run 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Lontano 3.00 2.9 6-1
1 4 Broadcast Legend 4.50 3 6-1
9 9 Two Point Oh 8.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Citrus Burst 6.00 3.7 7-1
4 3 Haig Point 8.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Good One 3.50 3.8 7-1
3 2 Salado 10.00 3.8 7-1
10 10 And He’s Loose 10.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Dublin Yinz Money 15.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Jupestar 20.00 7.5 14-1
1A 11 Imperial Moment 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Egobuster 5.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Mr Leo 3.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Change Direction 2.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Pocho’s Dream 3.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Tapizart 12.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Wicked Statement 12.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Messed Up 20.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Moro Pharoah 20.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Ronnie’s Reasoning 30.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Red Camelia S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Net a Bear 5.00 4.2 8-1
9 4 Room to Finish 3.50 4.6 9-1
4 2 Eskenformore 6.00 4.9 9-1
11 6 Is Too 6.00 5.1 10-1
7 3 Tap Dance Star 12.00 6.1 11-1
12 7 Bermuda Star 6.00 6.2 12-1
10 5 Thegrayspider 20.00 8.1 15-1
2 2 Mariah’s Galaxy 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Tenpins Tempo 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Marywood 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Mi Copa Rebosa 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Hyper Piper 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Freshman Class 3.50 2.6 5-1
7 6 Kizzy B 2.50 2.7 5-1
2 1 Seattle Slang 4.50 3.2 6-1
3 2 Orb’s Soul 6.00 3.8 7-1
8 7 Tizso Awesome 8.00 3.8 7-1
5 4 Tactful Susan 12.00 4.7 9-1
4 3 Anima Gemella 10.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Chick Be Quick 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Appealing Audrey 4.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 French Empire 4.50 4.7 9-1
9 8 Grandezza 8.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Puca Penny 8.00 4.9 9-1
10 9 Connectivity 3.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Zurlin 12.00 6 11-1
5 5 Awesome One 12.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Magical Peapod 12.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Glamour Gal 12.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Fashion Island 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Romani 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Malibu Dawn 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Singita Dreams 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Good Old Charlie 6.00 2.8 5-1
11 9 Our Bermuda 4.00 3.3 6-1
8 6 Brokejaw 4.50 3.6 7-1
9 7 He’s a Believer 8.00 4.4 8-1
10 8 Majestic Society 6.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Stormie Court 15.00 4.8 9-1
6 5 Dale’s Lil Bro 20.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 Bigboyshowshart 20.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 Fire Giant 30.00 8.8 17-1
5 5 Our Prince 4.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Unbridled Pulpit 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Charlie Gulch 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Fireman Sid 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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