Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Friday, March 13, 2020

March 13, 2020 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Bossy Bride 1.60 1.6 3-1
1 1 Causin’ Trouble 10.00 SCRATCH
2 1 Cairo Queen 5.00 2.2 4-1
3 2 First Dawn 4.50 2.8 5-1
6 5 Smiles From Sadie 2.50 3.1 6-1
8 7 Orbilicious 10.00 3.2 6-1
4 3 Heartstrings 20.00 5.3 10-1
5 4 Our Ticket 30.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Singapore Trader 4.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Shamrock Kid 3.50 2.6 5-1
3 3 Three to Thirteen 4.50 2.6 5-1
7 7 Foolish Ghost 10.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Vincento 6.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Big Mountain 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Control Group 2.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Peter’s Project 12.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Microgram 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Mizzen the Mark 4.50 2.1 4-1
5 4 Whispering Rose 5.00 3 6-1
8 7 Masons Friend 5.00 3 6-1
13 11 Molly’s Nighthawk 10.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Moneybackguarantee 10.00 4.6 9-1
10 8 Women Not Easy 12.00 4.8 9-1
6 5 Wicked Kheisha 10.00 5.8 11-1
4 3 Derby Doll 30.00 7.3 14-1
7 6 Holiday Belle 30.00 7.7 15-1
9 9 Cornetta’s Choice 4.00 SCRATCH
12 10 Emerald Ice 50.00 9.2 17-1
11 9 Sassy Secret 50.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Mills 1.80 2.3 4-1
2 2 Blame the Thief 3.50 2.5 5-1
5 5 Business Cycle 2.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Zonic 4.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Eden Ridge 12.00 4 8-1
7 7 So Sublime 20.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Toohottoevenspeak 20.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Le Gros Bill 50.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Sparty Boy 50.00 7.9 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Signified 6.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Beg to Differ 3.50 2 4-1
3 3 Frozen Account 6.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Whichwaytomalibu 3.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 A Vow of Beauty 8.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Liquor 8.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Unrelenting Force 5.00 3.6 7-1
10 10 Romanoatsee 15.00 4.5 8-1
9 9 Constant Quest 30.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 True Palace 30.00 8.5 16-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Cavaradossi 3.50 1.7 3-1
3 2 Impunity 2.50 1.8 3-1
4 3 Tale of Mist 4.00 1.9 4-1
5 4 Hardcore Folklore 3.00 1.9 4-1
8 7 Coolboy 20.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Mystical Song 15.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Nuclear Code 10.00 2.7 5-1
7 6 Escape 8.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 Deputy Flag 99.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Musical America 1.80 1.1 2-1
6 5 Han Sense 3.50 1.3 2-1
3 2 Roaming Union 4.00 1.3 2-1
2 1 Felix in Fabula 8.00 1.7 3-1
4 3 Payne 1.60 2.5 5-1
1 1 Grumps Little Tots 99.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Slimey 5.00 SCRATCH
8 5 Honor Way 6.00 2.4 5-1
9 6 Forgotten Hero 15.00 2.5 5-1
2 1 Bluegrass Jamboree 6.00 2.9 5-1
3 2 Hay Field 3.50 3 6-1
5 3 Queen Kahen 4.50 3.4 6-1
6 4 Honey I’m Good 3.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Fair Regis 99.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Jakarta 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Geta Lode of Lucky 5.00 2 4-1
13 11 Political 4.00 2.1 4-1
7 6 Da Berg 6.00 3 6-1
1 1 I Prowl Alone 4.50 SCRATCH
5 4 Honorable Avenue 8.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Unlikely 30.00 SCRATCH
2 1 Legend of Bam 12.00 4.2 8-1
9 7 Try’n Smart’n Up 6.00 4.5 9-1
12 10 Oneshotatforever 15.00 5.3 10-1
10 8 Geils Rocks 15.00 5.5 10-1
14A 12 Liams Majesty 20.00 8 15-1
6A 5 Oliver Witha Twist 20.00 9.8 18-1
11 9 Our Papa G 30.00 9.9 19-1
3 2 Blessed Honour 30.00 10.5 20-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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