Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, March 12, 2020

March 12, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Molly Golightly 3.50 2 4-1
7 7 Todayisnottheday 4.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Goodnight Gracie 4.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Interatifwithleu 5.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Smart Pegasus 6.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 One Fast Song 8.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Calaja 8.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Bind Me Up 6.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Richie Gary 4.00 2.3 4-1
10 10 Harbor Knight 6.00 SCRATCH
2 1 Stuck in Vegas 6.00 2.7 5-1
8 6 Mister Intuition 4.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Jennovodka 20.00 SCRATCH
9 7 War Count 6.00 3.6 7-1
3 2 Mr. Four Sevens 3.00 3.7 7-1
5 4 Big Boy Dave Rex 8.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Smokin’ Truth 8.00 SCRATCH
7 5 Mucho Marvin 8.00 4.7 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Dreaming of Curlin 4.00 2 4-1
1 1 Jerry’s Legacy 3.50 2.2 4-1
6 6 Rose Crown 4.50 2.4 5-1
5 5 War Bandit 6.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Margie’s Rouxbee 8.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Hey Grace 8.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Dignityto Infinity 10.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Charsey 10.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Orange Twister 12.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 More 4.50 SCRATCH
1A 12 Bonnet 6.00 SCRATCH
4 3 Whimsical Muse 4.00 2.9 6-1
3 2 Stellar Agent 3.50 3 6-1
5 4 I Love to Race 5.00 3.4 6-1
10 10 Malibu Dawn 6.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Hello Bubbles 6.00 5.8 11-1
1 6 Princess Trina 6.00 6 11-1
8 8 Savvy Ally 6.00 6.3 12-1
6 5 Ten Count Out 6.00 7 13-1
2 1 Grey Seal 8.00 7.3 14-1
11 11 Unprovoked 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Monarchos Prayer 3.00 2 4-1
4 4 Lu Sea 2.50 2.2 4-1
8 8 Handsome Girl 4.50 SCRATCH
7 5 Desert Thief 4.50 2.5 5-1
5 5 Niece Jackie Davis 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Leighton Kentucky 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 In Full Swing 8.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Dora Maar 15.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 Curlin Grey 4.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Briar Jumper 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Resilient Rick 4.50 4.2 8-1
11 10 Strut the Ring 3.50 4.4 8-1
8 7 Senor Blanco 5.00 4.5 8-1
15 15 Chop Chop Charlie 6.00 SCRATCH
9 8 Executive Bonus 8.00 5.1 10-1
14 14 Shotsoft 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Wildcard Prado 12.00 6.4 12-1
10 9 Mr. Papillon 12.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Foldover 6.00 7.1 13-1
13 12 Moonlight Mischief 15.00 8.7 16-1
12 11 Son of a Saint 20.00 10.6 20-1
6 5 Freedom Factor 20.00 10.7 20-1
3 3 Cadet Captain 20.00 10.9 21-1
7 6 Gustnado 20.00 11.4 22-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Two Mikes N Doc G 2.50 1.5 3-1
8 8 Reigning Warrior 3.50 1.6 3-1
6 6 Little Toe 6.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Woman With a Book 5.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Mono 6.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Nastida Mast 4.50 3.1 6-1
4 4 Donwell 12.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 My Little Rockstar 20.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
15 15 Go Tweet 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Good On Paper 4.50 1.8 3-1
10 10 Rain Dance 3.50 2.4 5-1
14 14 Pink Posse 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Candy Bizzness 6.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Reserve List 6.00 3.2 6-1
13 13 Jim’s Bronze Star 3.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Mam’selle 8.00 4.2 8-1
16 16 Half Dialed 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Dulcimer Dame 8.00 4.6 9-1
12 12 Artistic Jewler 10.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Cazadora 12.00 6 11-1
11 11 Seriously Sydney 12.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 G Kate 12.00 7 13-1
7 7 Lea’s Princess 20.00 8.8 17-1
2 2 Media Mendacity 20.00 10.2 19-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Wasnt Joking 3.50 3.1 6-1
3 3 Angel Cat 6.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Red River Chase 5.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Slew City Susie 5.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Customs in Dixie 4.50 3.7 7-1
9 9 Skylar’s Way 8.00 SCRATCH
11 10 Sarah Ann’s Pointe 15.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Ideal Mallory 15.00 5.6 11-1
10 9 Honduras Girl 20.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Floatie 20.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 Bulletsandbourbon 20.00 7.5 14-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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