March 12, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Molly Golightly | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Todayisnottheday | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Goodnight Gracie | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Interatifwithleu | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Smart Pegasus | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | One Fast Song | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Calaja | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bind Me Up | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Richie Gary | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Harbor Knight | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Stuck in Vegas | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Mister Intuition | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jennovodka | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 7 | War Count | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mr. Four Sevens | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Big Boy Dave Rex | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Smokin’ Truth | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Mucho Marvin | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Dreaming of Curlin | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jerry’s Legacy | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rose Crown | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | War Bandit | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Margie’s Rouxbee | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hey Grace | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dignityto Infinity | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Charsey | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Orange Twister | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | More | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 12 | Bonnet | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Whimsical Muse | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Stellar Agent | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | I Love to Race | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Malibu Dawn | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Hello Bubbles | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | Princess Trina | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Savvy Ally | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ten Count Out | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Grey Seal | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Unprovoked | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Monarchos Prayer | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lu Sea | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Handsome Girl | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Desert Thief | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Niece Jackie Davis | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Leighton Kentucky | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | In Full Swing | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dora Maar | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | Curlin Grey | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Briar Jumper | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Resilient Rick | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Strut the Ring | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Senor Blanco | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Chop Chop Charlie | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Executive Bonus | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Shotsoft | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Wildcard Prado | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Mr. Papillon | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Foldover | 6.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Moonlight Mischief | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Son of a Saint | 20.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Freedom Factor | 20.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cadet Captain | 20.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Gustnado | 20.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Two Mikes N Doc G | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Reigning Warrior | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Little Toe | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Woman With a Book | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mono | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nastida Mast | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Donwell | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | My Little Rockstar | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Go Tweet | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Good On Paper | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Rain Dance | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Pink Posse | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Candy Bizzness | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Reserve List | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Jim’s Bronze Star | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Mam’selle | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Half Dialed | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Dulcimer Dame | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Artistic Jewler | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cazadora | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Seriously Sydney | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | G Kate | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lea’s Princess | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Media Mendacity | 20.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Wasnt Joking | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Angel Cat | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Red River Chase | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Slew City Susie | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Customs in Dixie | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Skylar’s Way | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Sarah Ann’s Pointe | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ideal Mallory | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Honduras Girl | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Floatie | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bulletsandbourbon | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.