Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, March 11, 2020

March 11, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Alan’s Argument 2.00 1.9 4-1
8 8 Truth Teller 6.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Tapit On Race Day 3.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Venn 4.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Beforehand 10.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Loveu and Proudofu 8.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Tensas Gold 20.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Secret Vista 20.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Dancehall Jack 5.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Imindycatbirdseat 3.50 2.8 5-1
2 2 Rahfees Man 10.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Star Banjo 10.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 Greeley’s Dealer 3.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Queeten 8.00 4.2 8-1
10 10 Joemo 12.00 4.5 8-1
7 7 Cajun Pinata 10.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Looking for Bull 12.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Kid Creole 20.00 6.5 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 G’s Deadline 4.00 2.4 4-1
3 3 Streettalkinhottie 4.50 2.7 5-1
9 9 Commercial Flash 4.50 2.9 6-1
7 7 See Sassy Run 6.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Fuhrcry 6.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Maw Maw’s Sophia 8.00 4 8-1
2 2 Haute Cuisine 12.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 My Pal Charlene 12.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Piper’s Buttercup 12.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Lucky Harborage 20.00 7.7 15-1
10 10 Bad Gal Riri 20.00 7.8 15-1
11 11 Beautifulandwild 20.00 8.1 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 6 Bee Bit 4.50 3.2 6-1
1 1 Breezy Bee 3.50 3.2 6-1
4 3 Breakfast Pond 6.00 3.3 6-1
3 2 Badgeri Candy 8.00 3.3 6-1
12 9 Graceful Request 8.00 4 8-1
6 6 Folly 20.00 SCRATCH
11 8 Barbess 4.00 4.6 9-1
10 10 Singing Ontherail 30.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Girls in Charge 12.00 5.4 10-1
7 5 Big Red Rose 12.00 6 11-1
2 2 No Time to Play 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Limage 8.00 SCRATCH
9 7 Baylor 30.00 8.4 16-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 C Islandsurprise 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Bold Rey 3.50 3.3 6-1
7 6 Katie the Cutie 8.00 3.4 6-1
11 10 Soaring Now 5.00 3.6 7-1
9 8 Yes I’m Evil 4.50 3.8 7-1
8 7 Rake It Up 10.00 4.5 8-1
12 11 North of Eden 10.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 Color Me Pretty 6.00 5 9-1
10 9 Four Princesses 8.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Thai Chili Sue 12.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Sundereya 20.00 7 13-1
6 5 Lady Blue 20.00 7.6 14-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 1 Royal Alexandra 3.50 2.4 4-1
2 2 Forgotten 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Temple Shadow 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Yonna She Goes 8.00 SCRATCH
8 5 Offspring 6.00 3.6 7-1
14 14 Lookout Mountain 4.50 SCRATCH
12 12 Spartanburg 5.00 SCRATCH
6 3 Cicada’s Song 5.00 4.2 8-1
10 6 Mi Copa Rebosa 10.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Kodiak Sky 15.00 SCRATCH
11 7 Kris T. 12.00 6.1 11-1
15 15 Irish Hustle 8.00 SCRATCH
13 8 Air Guitar Star 20.00 9.4 18-1
7 4 Toodaloo to You 20.00 10.1 19-1
5 2 For Real Alice 20.00 10.5 20-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Wicked Smart 3.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Saintsation 4.00 2 4-1
8 8 Signify 4.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 Reunite 4.50 2.4 5-1
7 7 Beautiful Bella 5.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Luminaire 8.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Shelby Rose 10.00 5 10-1
3 3 Tormenta 10.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Dreamer’s Point 30.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Morning Stride 4.50 3.7 7-1
13 11 Firewater Jake 3.50 4.1 8-1
5 5 Don’task Don’ttell 8.00 4.2 8-1
1 4 Victor Lounge (IRE) 10.00 4.4 8-1
2 1 Skycraft 6.00 4.5 8-1
12 10 Kearny County 10.00 5.2 10-1
11 9 Murry Spur 10.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Mucho Macho Bets 10.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Tangled Web 10.00 6.7 13-1
15 15 Altito 3.00 SCRATCH
1A 16 Social Misfit 10.00 SCRATCH
4 3 Majestic Sign 20.00 7.6 14-1
14 12 Don’t Split Tens 20.00 7.9 15-1
7 7 One Mean Man 20.00 8.3 16-1
10 10 Beyond Smart 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Swiftown Miss 3.50 2 4-1
8 8 Dreamy Art 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Monarchos Prayer 3.00 SCRATCH
11 8 Active Girl 6.00 3.4 6-1
10 7 Star Performer 12.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Veronica’s Dream 6.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Tough Kicks 10.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Diva’s Ransom 12.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Rock the Jukebox 8.00 5.1 10-1
5 4 Lil Allie Dancer 15.00 6.6 13-1
2 2 Ole Black Magic 30.00 7.4 14-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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