Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, March 5, 2020

March 5, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Pure Valor 3.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Seeley 2.50 2 4-1
2 2 Swinging Galaxy 3.50 2.4 5-1
4 4 King’s Prayer 8.00 3 6-1
5 5 Remember Me Pop 4.50 3 6-1
7 7 Classical Dubai 15.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Nocomet 15.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Geaux Dubai 20.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 9 Jailhouse Kitten 2.00 2.4 5-1
9 8 Handsome Honey 4.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 I’m d’Cat 15.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Surge Pricing 2.50 3.6 7-1
3 3 Souper Catch 8.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Zing Zang 10.00 4 7-1
5 5 Go for Moonshine 12.00 4.8 9-1
8 7 Good Intent 15.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Thunder and Rain 20.00 6 11-1
1 1 Costa Alot 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Compromising 2.50 2 4-1
7 7 Nana’s Joy 3.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Tiz One Fee 4.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Charzee Baby 3.50 3.2 6-1
1 1 Theboyzgalaxy 10.00 4 8-1
6 6 Bernadettes Vision 12.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Just Cruising 20.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Star Gaze 15.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Im a Cowboy Too 4.00 3 6-1
8 8 Payday Too 6.00 3.1 6-1
13 13 Magic Vow 3.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Theoryintopractice 2.50 4 7-1
5 5 Papa’s Boy 3.50 4.2 8-1
4 4 Run Rocket 6.00 4.3 8-1
11 11 Power Jet 6.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Cabo’s Rumor 10.00 5 9-1
3 3 Louisiana Moon 12.00 5.9 11-1
12 12 Rifle Man 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Impressive Student 20.00 8 15-1
7 7 Why Joey Why 20.00 8.1 15-1
10 10 Krafty Boy 20.00 8.1 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Miss Imperial 1.80 1.5 3-1
1 1 Celia’s Song 3.00 SCRATCH
2 1 Proposition 2.50 2.5 5-1
5 4 Beautiful Tale 4.50 3.1 6-1
4 3 Miz Shelton 5.00 3.3 6-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Curlington 12.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Reach the Moon 3.50 1.9 4-1
8 8 A. K. Safari 4.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Alfons Walde (IRE) 1.80 SCRATCH
7 5 Buy Me Candy 8.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 Man of Honor 4.00 SCRATCH
6 4 Pintxos 6.00 3.3 6-1
5 3 Whata Perfect Day 6.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Hoffa 20.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Truth Teller 10.00 SCRATCH
9 6 Half Again 3.00 1.8 3-1
11 11 Curious Case 5.00 SCRATCH
1 1 One More Jump 3.50 2.5 5-1
10 7 Commander Scott 8.00 2.8 5-1
5 4 Hostile Afleet 8.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Coach O 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Goodrockinalvin 20.00 SCRATCH
8 5 By Our Love 8.00 3.7 7-1
12 8 Finest Saber 20.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Daddy Cool Cat 30.00 7.5 14-1
3 3 Prince Carlos 30.00 7.8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Chocolate Kisses 4.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Poster Girl (GB) 5.00 3.2 6-1
9 9 Queen of Beas 3.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Aife 6.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Fullness of Life (IRE) 8.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Makealitlemischief 6.00 4 7-1
6 6 Lounge Act 10.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Lunar Approach 15.00 6.1 12-1
7 7 Corluna 12.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Ms Louisa 2.00 1.8 3-1
9 8 Madison’s Place 6.00 2.7 5-1
6 5 Lassie’s Last Hour 4.50 2.7 5-1
3 3 Boston Honey 4.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Half Heroine 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Awishforgreeley 8.00 3.8 7-1
5 4 Orthodox Beat 10.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Gerrie Lou 20.00 5.4 10-1
7 6 Lady Brooklyn 20.00 5.9 11-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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