Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, March 1, 2020

March 1, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Madeforlife 2.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Secret Princess 4.50 2.3 4-1
1 1 Whodatwhodat 5.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Love Bound 2.50 2.9 6-1
6 6 Swimhard Dreambig 6.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Mayreese 10.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Kohensrising 20.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Fiona Power 4.00 2 4-1
2 2 La Vida 2.50 2.8 5-1
7 7 Priceless Nellie 2.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Seven Jewels 4.50 3.5 7-1
6 6 Diamond and Silks 10.00 3.7 7-1
1A 1 Goingtoagogo 8.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Soco Unbridled 20.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Surprise Arrival 8.00 SCRATCH
8 9 Actress On Board 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Star Prado 4.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Harbor Sunset 6.00 2.4 4-1
7 7 Special Connection 5.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 G’s Mine 3.50 2.5 5-1
4 4 Casual Pleasure 2.50 2.8 5-1
2 2 Pops Shanghai 4.50 3 6-1
5 5 Aubee Grand 15.00 4.5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Savvy Shipman 5.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Royal Alexandra 3.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Crimson Feline 4.50 3 6-1
8 8 Forgotten 8.00 4 8-1
1 1 B’s Ten 4.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 My Pepper Ann 6.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Marywood 8.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Brahms Baby 15.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Scootin Bayou 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Guitar Slim 1.40 1.9 4-1
4 4 Reinsure 5.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Drilling Report 4.50 3.9 7-1
5 5 Thunk 12.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Barrow Road 8.00 4 8-1
8 7 Tucker the Grouch 12.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Putthehammerdown 20.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Secret Redemption 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Here Comes Kyle 6.00 2.7 5-1
10 10 Latent Revenge 6.00 2.9 6-1
2 2 Hello Bubbles 8.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 On the Muscle 12.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Snoose Goose 6.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Channel Won 4.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Battlebus 8.00 4 7-1
9 9 Prince Pierce 10.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Horse Doctor 3.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Like Mike 30.00 7.2 14-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Harper’s Deelite 4.50 3.6 7-1
4 3 Gentilly Stage 4.00 4.5 9-1
5 4 Double Cool 6.00 4.6 9-1
10 8 Senator Con 8.00 4.6 9-1
7 6 Fleet Run 8.00 4.7 9-1
8 7 Tiz Neyney and Rad 12.00 5.9 11-1
6 5 Tiger Road 15.00 6.3 12-1
2 1 Fix D Fence 20.00 7.2 14-1
1 1 Arties Game 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Boston Bind 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Markitoff 3.00 2.9 5-1
11 10 Keep Quiet (FR) 4.50 3.8 7-1
1 1 Don’task Don’ttell 8.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Landofthepharaohs 10.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Duncastle 6.00 5.7 11-1
10 9 Irish Heatwave 10.00 6.1 12-1
5 5 Two Emmys 5.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Luna de Loco 15.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Vivid Verse 15.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Ezmosh 15.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 One Mean Man 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 So Alive 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Quisty Boy 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 King Bayou 4.50 2.8 5-1
6 5 Flashyboy Bobb 3.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Kiss Your Bride 10.00 4.1 8-1
10 9 Halfourretirement 4.00 4.2 8-1
5 4 Round Quarter 10.00 5.2 10-1
7 6 Sidney’s Hunch 10.00 5.6 11-1
9 8 Rhett n’ Scarlett 15.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Caeus in Pasadena 15.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Grand Ty 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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