Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, March 1, 2020

March 1, 2020 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Fast Break 0.80 1.5 3-1
4 3 New Frontier 1.60 1.7 3-1
1 1 Point of Humor 5.00 SCRATCH
2 1 Ink Splotz 8.00 3.1 6-1
3 2 Tri Saint Lorenzo 15.00 3.4 6-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Floss Dancer 20.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Awesome Alana 0.60 2 4-1
5 4 Chillinwithfriends 3.00 2.7 5-1
4 3 Ok Honey 10.00 3.6 7-1
2 1 Sister Alexa 12.00 3.7 7-1
7 6 Spring Drama 6.00 4 7-1
3 2 Party in the Sand 15.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Thegoodmind (IRE) 20.00 SCRATCH
4 3 My Sweet Kat 1.00 2 4-1
7 6 Super Twenty Seven 2.50 2.6 5-1
5 4 Tokyo Bay 3.50 3.2 6-1
2 2 Wicked Kheisha 8.00 4 8-1
1 1 City Bird Flying 20.00 5 9-1
6 5 Moneybackguarantee 15.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5A 5 Reed Kan 1.60 1.6 3-1
2A 2 Life in Shambles 1.60 1.8 3-1
7 7 Tale of Mist 6.00 1.9 4-1
8 8 Autostrade 4.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Wegotoldyougotsold 1.80 2.5 5-1
6 6 Angry Moon 10.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Thousand Percent 15.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Swiping Dan 30.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Beautiful Karen 1.60 1.1 2-1
1 1 Mystic Moves 4.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Makingcents 2.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Take Charge Donna 6.00 2.9 6-1
5 5 Rosey’s Invasion 12.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Bella Domenica 10.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Kilkea 20.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Tapizearance 2.50 1.3 2-1
2 2 Wild Banker 3.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Mr. Shortandsimple 3.00 2.3 4-1
7 6 My Sacred Place 4.50 2.6 5-1
6 5 King of American 15.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Thunder Day 6.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Glenn Likes Gin 20.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Yes for Less 15.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Collegeville Girl 1.80 2 4-1
6 6 Bustin Scones 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Doll 1.20 2.8 5-1
4 4 Tayler’s the Boss 6.00 2.8 5-1
7 6 Carlisle Belle 8.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Party in the Raine 12.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Happy Music 15.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Frank’sgunisloaded 2.50 2 4-1
4 4 Roaming Union 3.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Patagonia 1.60 2.7 5-1
1 1 Krewe Chief 8.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Small Bear 8.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Its All Relevant 6.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Quest for Fire 5.00 2 4-1
4 3 Air On Fire 3.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Elios Milos 2.50 SCRATCH
8 7 Bustin the Rules 4.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Jack Bo 10.00 3.1 6-1
5 4 Call the Cat 12.00 3.7 7-1
9 8 Flat Rate 8.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Ari’s Naughty Luca 15.00 4.7 9-1
7 6 Alongcametheprince 30.00 6.6 12-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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