February 29, 2020 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Summer Belief | 2.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hot Little Honey | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stunning Munnings | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | La Negrita | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | All About Reyana | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Speed Talks | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 1 | Coach Villa | 1.80 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Jerome Avenue | 1.40 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bustin Hoffman | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Vineyard Sound | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | American Rule | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | True Gold | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Cavaradossi | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Devil’s Code | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Mommie’s Jewel | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Not Phar Now | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Double Shot | 1.20 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Pave It | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Theitalianamerican | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Boom Boom Kaboom | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Always Funny | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Blacktop Legend | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shamrocked | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hersh | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | War Tocsin | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ready to Escape | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mad Munnys | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9A | 8 | Manifest Destiny | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | We Should Talk | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4A | 3 | Bootlegger (FR) | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | H Man | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Winning Drive | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Desert Lights | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Deep Sea | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Toohottoevenspeak | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Neighborhood Bully | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Monteleone | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Scuttlebuzz | 1.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | The Last Ace | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mr. Buckley | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | I Prowl Alone | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Forest Spirit | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Black Irish | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Being Me | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Montauk Memories | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Yankee Division | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Captain Frost | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Freaky Styley | 1.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | High Command | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Beach Access | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Irish Valor | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Run for Boston | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mystical Song | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Quintarelli | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Bernardini S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 1 | Dynamax Prime | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Adventist | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Heavy Roller | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Leitone (CHI) | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Backsideofthemoon | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Patagonia | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Blugrascat’s Smile | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Ekhtibaar | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Armament | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Wushu Warrior | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Flash Drive | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Big Thicket | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blue Belt | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | San Juan Diego | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Psychic Energy | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Five Star Bunt | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Royal Asset | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | What a Catch | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.