Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, February 29, 2020

February 29, 2020 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Summer Belief 2.00 1.3 3-1
3 3 Hot Little Honey 3.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Stunning Munnings 3.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 La Negrita 3.50 3.1 6-1
4 4 All About Reyana 8.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Speed Talks 8.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 1 Coach Villa 1.80 1.3 3-1
4 3 Jerome Avenue 1.40 2.4 5-1
2 2 Bustin Hoffman 5.00 3 6-1
7 6 Vineyard Sound 4.50 3.3 6-1
6 5 American Rule 12.00 4.5 9-1
5 4 True Gold 10.00 5.1 10-1
3A 3 Cavaradossi 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Devil’s Code 10.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Mommie’s Jewel 12.00 SCRATCH
6 4 Not Phar Now 3.00 1.8 3-1
3 1 Double Shot 1.20 3.3 6-1
5 3 Pave It 6.00 3.4 6-1
7 5 Theitalianamerican 6.00 5 9-1
8 6 Boom Boom Kaboom 15.00 5.6 11-1
4 2 Always Funny 15.00 6.5 12-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Blacktop Legend 2.50 1.7 3-1
6 6 Shamrocked 1.80 1.8 3-1
2 2 Hersh 2.50 2.6 5-1
3 3 War Tocsin 8.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Ready to Escape 6.00 4 8-1
1 1 Mad Munnys 10.00 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9A 8 Manifest Destiny 4.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 We Should Talk 3.50 1.6 3-1
4A 3 Bootlegger (FR) 4.00 1.7 3-1
3 2 H Man 3.00 2.6 5-1
6 5 Winning Drive 5.00 2.8 5-1
7 6 Desert Lights 8.00 3.7 7-1
5 4 Deep Sea 12.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Toohottoevenspeak 20.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Neighborhood Bully 30.00 6.9 13-1
10 10 Monteleone 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Scuttlebuzz 1.00 1.2 2-1
4 4 The Last Ace 5.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Mr. Buckley 4.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 I Prowl Alone 8.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Forest Spirit 6.00 3 6-1
6 6 Black Irish 20.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Being Me 20.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Montauk Memories 15.00 6.7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Yankee Division 2.00 2 4-1
5 5 Captain Frost 6.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Freaky Styley 1.80 2.7 5-1
7 7 High Command 10.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Beach Access 8.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Irish Valor 12.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Run for Boston 12.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Mystical Song 15.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Quintarelli 30.00 6.7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Bernardini S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 1 Dynamax Prime 6.00 2.6 5-1
6 4 Adventist 4.00 2.6 5-1
9 7 Heavy Roller 6.00 2.7 5-1
7 5 Leitone (CHI) 3.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Backsideofthemoon 3.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Patagonia 6.00 SCRATCH
8 6 Blugrascat’s Smile 15.00 5 9-1
4 2 Ekhtibaar 15.00 5.8 11-1
5 3 Armament 20.00 6.7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Wushu Warrior 4.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Flash Drive 6.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Big Thicket 6.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Blue Belt 2.00 3 6-1
3 3 San Juan Diego 8.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Psychic Energy 8.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Five Star Bunt 10.00 5.3 10-1
9 9 Royal Asset 10.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 What a Catch 20.00 8.1 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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