Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, February 27, 2020

February 27, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 2 Bar Tap 3.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Little Red Frog 2.00 2.5 5-1
6 7 Evil Lyn 3.00 2.9 5-1
2 1 Sentimentaljourney 6.00 3.9 7-1
5 6 Summer Express 5.00 4 8-1
1A 5 Bluebird Sing 3.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Tiz Susan Ann 10.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Heather Divine 3.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 G’s Deadline 4.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Alliaceous 6.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Foreign Connection 3.50 3.8 7-1
8 8 Maw Maw’s Sophia 6.00 4 8-1
5 5 Overly Sweet 12.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 I Am the Fire 10.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 The Last Gig 12.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Little Girls Rule 20.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Embarrassing 3.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Trivial 3.50 2.4 4-1
1 1 Strollin the Bayou 4.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Havinfunyet 4.50 5.3 10-1
4 4 North of Eden 6.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Little Snip 6.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Gabby’s Half 8.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Bold Rey 3.50 SCRATCH
9 9 N. D. Free 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Say Yes Again 4.50 2.3 4-1
5 5 Snowball 3.00 2.4 4-1
3 3 Sebs Princess 5.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 This Is My Prayer 2.50 3.1 6-1
4 4 Bella Cajun 5.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Onetwomanyrockets 8.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Xairo 12.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 4 Hero of the Future 1.80 1.8 3-1
2 1 Silver Galaxy 4.50 2.7 5-1
5 5 Silver Seabee 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 2 Homebred 3.50 3 6-1
4 3 Sigesmund 6.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Citrus Burst 6.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Soar Like an Eagle 15.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Thenextbestthing 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Lady Be Gone 3.50 1.8 3-1
5 4 Joe G’s Payback 5.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Lucky Artie 4.50 3.3 6-1
7 6 Lebkuchen 6.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Oh Toodles 4.50 4.4 8-1
6 5 Tensas Weezy 8.00 6.4 12-1
8 7 Sienna Breeze 8.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Sing the Song 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Copper Fiddle 3.50 2.7 5-1
8 6 Vacation Lover 3.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Afleet Roger 6.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Morethanfishin 6.00 3.6 7-1
7 5 Maspero 10.00 5.3 10-1
6 4 Bayou Jam 10.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 River Finn 4.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Vincitore 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Avie’s Mineshaft 3.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Miss Bigly 2.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Brunette Princess 4.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Tiz Ella 6.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Diamondcoat 6.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Midnight Sway 8.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Court Surprise 8.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 7 Southern Swagg 3.50 3.5 7-1
7 6 Brother Richie 6.00 4.1 8-1
4 3 Bet Again 3.00 4.3 8-1
6 5 Bibleman 5.00 5.1 10-1
9 9 Rose’s Galaxy 8.00 5.3 10-1
5 4 Two Steppin’ Star 6.00 5.3 10-1
2 1 Alma Derby 10.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Fast Verdict 10.00 6.8 13-1
3 2 The Minit I See U 10.00 6.9 13-1
1 3 Jax Man 3.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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