Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Friday, February 21, 2020

February 21, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 4 Friday’s Best 3.00 3.1 6-1
1A 2 Soul Song 4.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Aw Ite 4.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Gem of Carlos 4.00 4.2 8-1
4 5 Too Much Bourbon 6.00 5 10-1
2 3 Free Indeed 6.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Heza Priority 6.00 7.2 14-1
5 6 Broadway Jones 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Niigon’s Glory 8.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Warrior’s Kid 12.00 5.1 10-1
5 3 Mark of the Z 4.50 5.2 10-1
6 4 Catalogue 5.00 5.3 10-1
9 6 Fire Blaster 12.00 5.5 10-1
10 7 Riv 2.50 5.5 10-1
7 5 Spectrolite 6.00 6 11-1
2 2 Roger Brown 1.80 SCRATCH
4 4 Wildcat Saint 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Mustang Cat 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Allidoisdreamofyou 3.50 2.4 4-1
5 5 Carson Kan 4.50 3.1 6-1
2 2 B W P Express 6.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Containment 4.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Mono 8.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Whiskey Bravo 4.50 4 8-1
8 8 Senor Blair 5.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Super Factor 20.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 7 Miss Brookside 3.50 4.1 8-1
12 8 Glance 8.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Gymnastic 8.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Yes I’m Evil 6.00 5.1 10-1
9 6 Katie the Cutie 20.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Singmebackhome 20.00 6.1 11-1
5 5 Color Me Pretty 4.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 Girls Life 30.00 8.9 17-1
6 6 Kenzie Blake 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Little Snip 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Back Page Star 4.50 SCRATCH
10 10 My Little Princess 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Heart of a Dreamer 2.50 3 6-1
5 5 Demi Patrick 5.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Warriors Wolf 10.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Pocho’s Dream 3.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Captainontherocks 5.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Smart Arch 8.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Trueno 12.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Distored Half 20.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Meaningful 20.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Creole Candy 4.50 3.8 7-1
8 4 Half a Bite 8.00 5.3 10-1
10 5 Ibeam 8.00 5.6 10-1
2 1 Amavi 10.00 5.7 11-1
4 3 Les Paul 15.00 8.1 15-1
1 2 Inca Warrior 15.00 SCRATCH
1A 8 Jaci’s Royalty 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Baudette Blizzard 3.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Bing Bing 30.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Reluctant Warrior 4.00 SCRATCH
9 10 Degrasse 20.00 SCRATCH
11 12 Charlie Hoss 12.00 SCRATCH
12 13 Half Pipe 12.00 SCRATCH
13 14 Secret Redemption 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 3 Saintsation 3.50 1.8 3-1
7 5 Fairywren 1.80 1.9 4-1
6 4 Lastchanceforlove 4.00 2.3 4-1
4 2 She’s Got Moves 4.50 2.9 6-1
3 1 Freedom Passage 5.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 She’s Mischief 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Venus in Furs 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Mighty Heart 8.00 3.5 7-1
9 6 Lookin High 4.50 4 7-1
2 1 Bandit Swanson 8.00 4 8-1
6 4 Oxburger 5.00 4.4 8-1
4 3 Izzy in a Tizzy 10.00 4.5 9-1
8 5 Dack Janiel’s 15.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 On the Muscle 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Alfons Walde (IRE) 3.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Reach the Moon 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Secret Princess 5.00 2.5 5-1
12 11 Sheza Mean Broad 4.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Vegas Memory 8.00 3.8 7-1
11 10 Half Heroine 6.00 4 8-1
6 6 Pray for Lisa 3.50 4.1 8-1
7 7 Sharp Buzz 8.00 4.2 8-1
10 9 Ezee Enough 6.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Orthodox Beat 20.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Stone Classic 30.00 7.1 14-1
3 3 Lady Brooklyn 30.00 7.7 15-1
2 2 Toshita Forever 30.00 8.1 15-1
9 9 I Am the Fire 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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