February 21, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 4 | Friday’s Best | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1A | 2 | Soul Song | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Aw Ite | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gem of Carlos | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 5 | Too Much Bourbon | 6.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 3 | Free Indeed | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Heza Priority | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | Broadway Jones | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Niigon’s Glory | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Warrior’s Kid | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Mark of the Z | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Catalogue | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Fire Blaster | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Riv | 2.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Spectrolite | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Roger Brown | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Wildcat Saint | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Mustang Cat | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Allidoisdreamofyou | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Carson Kan | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | B W P Express | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Containment | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mono | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Whiskey Bravo | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Senor Blair | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Super Factor | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 7 | Miss Brookside | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Glance | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gymnastic | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Yes I’m Evil | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Katie the Cutie | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Singmebackhome | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Color Me Pretty | 4.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Girls Life | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kenzie Blake | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Little Snip | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Back Page Star | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | My Little Princess | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Heart of a Dreamer | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Demi Patrick | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Warriors Wolf | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pocho’s Dream | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Captainontherocks | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Smart Arch | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Trueno | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Distored Half | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Meaningful | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Creole Candy | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Half a Bite | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Ibeam | 8.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Amavi | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Les Paul | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Inca Warrior | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 8 | Jaci’s Royalty | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Baudette Blizzard | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Bing Bing | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Reluctant Warrior | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 10 | Degrasse | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 12 | Charlie Hoss | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 13 | Half Pipe | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 14 | Secret Redemption | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Saintsation | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Fairywren | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Lastchanceforlove | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | She’s Got Moves | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Freedom Passage | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | She’s Mischief | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Venus in Furs | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Mighty Heart | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Lookin High | 4.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Bandit Swanson | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Oxburger | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Izzy in a Tizzy | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Dack Janiel’s | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | On the Muscle | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Alfons Walde (IRE) | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Reach the Moon | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Secret Princess | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Sheza Mean Broad | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Vegas Memory | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Half Heroine | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pray for Lisa | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sharp Buzz | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Ezee Enough | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Orthodox Beat | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Stone Classic | 30.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lady Brooklyn | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Toshita Forever | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | I Am the Fire | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.