Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Friday, February 21, 2020

February 21, 2020 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Da Berg 2.50 2 4-1
7 5 The Joke’s On You 0.60 2.1 4-1
3 2 Da Alpha 30.00 SCRATCH
2 1 Go With Honor 10.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Plebe 4.50 SCRATCH
4 2 Freudian Analyst 30.00 6.1 11-1
5 3 Wisecrack 30.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Radiantrithym 2.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Cold Hearted Pearl 4.00 2.5 5-1
3A 3 Zecha 5.00 2.7 5-1
9 8 Linda’s Ballet 6.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Cover Photo 6.00 3.4 7-1
5 5 Keep Your Distance 5.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Nowitna River 12.00 4.9 9-1
8 7 Mazmania 20.00 6.7 13-1
7A 7 First Forever 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Soul Fight 1.80 1.8 3-1
5 5 Legion Storm 2.50 2.1 4-1
6 6 Dr. Devera’s Way 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Bad Guy 2.50 2.8 5-1
7 7 Mine the Coin 6.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Bridgetothefuture 30.00 5 9-1
4 4 Ridolfo 30.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Quasar 2.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Gottahaveaholiday 2.50 2.3 4-1
7 7 Jasminesque 2.50 2.3 4-1
2 2 Lovely Lucky 5.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Empirita 8.00 2.9 6-1
6 6 Hickory Made 15.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Capraia’s Destiny 30.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Somethingtotellyou 3.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Prince of Pharoahs 0.80 2.7 5-1
7 7 Giant Shoes 4.50 2.8 5-1
6 6 Wild Banker 8.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Titan’s Will 15.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Forever Wicked 12.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Bellarmine Hall 20.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Business Cycle 2.50 1.9 4-1
6 6 Monteleone 1.80 2.2 4-1
1 1 Sandy Lane 8.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Mills 8.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Daddy D T 5.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Poshsky 12.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Majestic Affair 6.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Fun Prospect 50.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Love of My Heart 3.50 1.7 3-1
6 6 Autonomous 2.50 1.8 3-1
2 2 Ilchester Cheetah 6.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Kansas Kis 10.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Leaveuwithasmile 5.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Fierce Lady 2.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Wicked Amber 30.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Central Perk 3.50 SCRATCH
5 4 Tiny Magoo 6.00 1.4 3-1
6 5 Hayezhee 4.50 1.5 3-1
7 6 For Home 8.00 2 4-1
1 1 Left Leaning Lucy 4.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Central Exit 2.00 2.8 5-1
8 7 Funny Pursuit 15.00 3 6-1
2 2 Bellamy Bigs 50.00 6.8 13-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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