February 20, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Beadsinthetrees | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Monarchos Prayer | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cherry Twist | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Jaded Rose | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | D’freak Nasty | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Daylight Deelite | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Born to D’ Wild | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Resilient Rick | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Treys Midnite Moon | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Papillon | 12.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Moonlight Mischief | 15.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 6 | Vinyl | 12.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Briar Jumper | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Cadet Captain | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Wildcard Prado | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Broken Key | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Senor Blanco | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Catalogue | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Executive Bonus | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Mustang Cat | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Run Tappy | 15.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 7 | Honor Mission | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1A | 3 | Sumner | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 9 | Making a Marc | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Reigning Warrior | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 8 | Two Mikes N Doc G | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 6 | True West | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 5 | Bear Trappe | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Smithwick | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 4 | Foolish Prince | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Sensible Myth | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Folly | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mo Gayle | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Girls in Charge | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Moyne Spun | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Temple of Roses | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | No Time to Play | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Bronco Sally | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Barbess | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Breezy Bee | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Graceful Request | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Close to Me | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fashion’s Touch | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stealing Sunshine | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Baylor | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Daaherachel | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Angel’s Cut | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Heidi’s Wish | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Arkansas Alley | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cant Hide My Crazy | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Marquee Moment | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Ace Destroyer | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 5 | There and Back | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 15 | 6 | Bertie’s Galaxy | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Tom’s Last General | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 4 | Hold Me Black | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | More Than A. P. | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Here Comes Kyle | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Snoose Goose | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Spectrolite | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Latent Revenge | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Channel Won | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Horse Doctor | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Battlebus | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | On the Muscle | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Yankee Seven | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Uncle Momo | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Steadytillready | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Dontneedaname | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Greenback | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Symphonic | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hurricane Dancer | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cavalry Charge | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tornado Boy | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Kingston Street | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Major Attraction | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Wasiyah | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1A | 4 | Piece of My Heart | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Mom’s Pass | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Cazadora | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 11 | Slime Queen | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Saturday Sun | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | My Heart Sings | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Flabbergasted | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Skye Snow | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | U S S Lexington | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Malartach | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Sansa’s Vow | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Urbana | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Wasnt Joking | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Gottabegolden | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Wind Zee | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Oma Lee | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Guestar | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Thinking of Her | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dori’s Birdies | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Top Ten Duchess | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Finest Kylie | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Honduras Girl | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Canadian Girl | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.