Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, February 20, 2020

February 20, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Beadsinthetrees 5.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Monarchos Prayer 2.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Cherry Twist 4.50 2.9 6-1
3 3 Jaded Rose 3.50 3.2 6-1
6 6 D’freak Nasty 6.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Daylight Deelite 6.00 5 9-1
5 5 Born to D’ Wild 12.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 3 Resilient Rick 4.50 5.5 10-1
8 4 Treys Midnite Moon 4.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Mr. Papillon 12.00 8.2 16-1
9 5 Moonlight Mischief 15.00 9.3 18-1
12 6 Vinyl 12.00 9.9 19-1
2 2 Briar Jumper 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Cadet Captain 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Wildcard Prado 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Broken Key 12.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Senor Blanco 5.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Catalogue 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Executive Bonus 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Mustang Cat 6.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Run Tappy 15.00 10.1 19-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 7 Honor Mission 3.50 2.7 5-1
1A 3 Sumner 4.50 3.2 6-1
8 9 Making a Marc 3.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Reigning Warrior 4.50 3.6 7-1
7 8 Two Mikes N Doc G 6.00 3.6 7-1
5 6 True West 6.00 4.7 9-1
4 5 Bear Trappe 6.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Smithwick 10.00 5.7 11-1
3 4 Foolish Prince 12.00 7.6 14-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Sensible Myth 5.00 4.3 8-1
10 6 Folly 10.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Mo Gayle 12.00 6.1 12-1
7 4 Girls in Charge 10.00 6.7 13-1
8 5 Moyne Spun 15.00 7.2 14-1
1 1 Temple of Roses 20.00 8.1 15-1
3 3 No Time to Play 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Bronco Sally 4.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Barbess 4.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Breezy Bee 4.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Graceful Request 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Close to Me 3.00 3.8 7-1
7 6 Fashion’s Touch 6.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Stealing Sunshine 6.00 4.1 8-1
9 8 Baylor 10.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Daaherachel 4.00 4.6 9-1
5 4 Angel’s Cut 4.50 5.1 10-1
10 9 Heidi’s Wish 10.00 5.4 10-1
8 7 Arkansas Alley 20.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Cant Hide My Crazy 20.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Marquee Moment 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 3 Ace Destroyer 8.00 5.5 10-1
12 5 There and Back 3.00 5.8 11-1
15 6 Bertie’s Galaxy 4.00 6 11-1
2 1 Tom’s Last General 12.00 6.7 13-1
9 4 Hold Me Black 12.00 8 15-1
3 2 More Than A. P. 20.00 9.2 17-1
1 1 Here Comes Kyle 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Snoose Goose 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Spectrolite 10.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Latent Revenge 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Channel Won 5.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Horse Doctor 4.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Battlebus 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 On the Muscle 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Yankee Seven 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Uncle Momo 4.00 2.2 4-1
8 7 Steadytillready 8.00 2.6 5-1
9 8 Dontneedaname 8.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Greenback 8.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Symphonic 5.00 3.2 6-1
7 6 Hurricane Dancer 8.00 3.7 7-1
5 4 Cavalry Charge 6.00 4 7-1
6 5 Tornado Boy 20.00 6.2 12-1
10 9 Kingston Street 30.00 6.5 12-1
3 3 Major Attraction 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Wasiyah 8.00 4 8-1
1A 4 Piece of My Heart 4.00 4.1 8-1
7 3 Mom’s Pass 8.00 5.4 10-1
4 2 Cazadora 15.00 6.4 12-1
1 11 Slime Queen 4.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Saturday Sun 20.00 SCRATCH
5 4 My Heart Sings 12.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Flabbergasted 6.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Skye Snow 5.00 SCRATCH
9 8 U S S Lexington 12.00 SCRATCH
10 9 Malartach 20.00 SCRATCH
11 10 Sansa’s Vow 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Urbana 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Wasnt Joking 3.50 4.7 9-1
11 10 Gottabegolden 8.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Wind Zee 10.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Oma Lee 5.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Guestar 6.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Thinking of Her 3.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Dori’s Birdies 8.00 6 11-1
7 7 Top Ten Duchess 15.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Finest Kylie 15.00 7.7 15-1
8 8 Honduras Girl 20.00 7.9 15-1
10 10 Canadian Girl 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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