February 17, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Christeana’s Kiss | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | My Half | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Meg and Clair | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lookin Back At It | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Supersport Sally | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Can’t Count That | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lady Fitzgerald | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 5 | Shae’s Day | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Eatorbeeaten | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Silver King | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Love That Warrior | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Izzy’s Baby Boy | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Sydster | 3.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Musical Man | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | J C’s in Town | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Extra Mile | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Pancho’s Lucky Boy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Oh My Aching Arch | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Gavins Little Sis | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lady Blue | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sundereya | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Take Charge Gal | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | C Islandsurprise | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Soaring Now | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Thai Chili Sue | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2 | My Pepper Ann | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 5 | Offspring | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Temple Shadow | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 4 | Trefoil | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 3 | Air Guitar Star | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 6 | Toodaloo to You | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gio Angel | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Spartanburg | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Mi Copa Rebosa | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Kool Aid Girl | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Forgotten | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Gabby’s Half | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Royal Alexandra | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | B’s Ten | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Calimambo | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Asongforyou | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Forerun | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Why Joey Why | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Saltee Stark | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Charge the Line | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Jake the Band Man | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | Lusitano | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Consumerconfidence | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Morning Stride | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Skycraft | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Majestic Sign | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Mucho Macho Bets | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Son of a Saint | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Antarctic | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Murry Spur | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Senor Friday | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Don’task Don’ttell | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Stop Shoppin Tammy | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Livy B | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kizzy B | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Freshman Class | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Actress On Board | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Heavenly Sis | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Artistic Jewler | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Reserve List | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sail On Ellen | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sconsin | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Polarcents | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tizso Awesome | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Vintage Ready | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cazadora | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Pink Posse | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Fine One Won | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Jim’s Bronze Star | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Good On Paper | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Wicked Smart | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 4 | Gato Del Banco | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1A | 8 | Wellfield | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Hitthegroundrunnin | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | V Man | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Shackleford Road | 2.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Djinn of Djibouti | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2B | 6 | Civil | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Cabo Headache | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 7 | Forever Touched | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.