Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Monday, February 17, 2020

February 17, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Christeana’s Kiss 2.50 2.7 5-1
5 5 My Half 6.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Meg and Clair 5.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Lookin Back At It 4.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Supersport Sally 6.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Can’t Count That 12.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Lady Fitzgerald 3.00 4.7 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 5 Shae’s Day 12.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Eatorbeeaten 15.00 4.1 8-1
5 4 Silver King 6.00 4.3 8-1
10 6 Love That Warrior 20.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Izzy’s Baby Boy 8.00 5.4 10-1
11 7 Sydster 3.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Musical Man 12.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 J C’s in Town 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Extra Mile 3.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Pancho’s Lucky Boy 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Oh My Aching Arch 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Gavins Little Sis 3.50 2.6 5-1
5 5 Lady Blue 8.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Sundereya 8.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Take Charge Gal 3.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 C Islandsurprise 8.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Soaring Now 4.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Thai Chili Sue 4.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 2 My Pepper Ann 8.00 6 11-1
12 5 Offspring 10.00 7 13-1
2 1 Temple Shadow 20.00 7.8 15-1
10 4 Trefoil 20.00 8 15-1
8 3 Air Guitar Star 20.00 8.2 15-1
13 6 Toodaloo to You 20.00 9.2 17-1
1 1 Gio Angel 12.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Spartanburg 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Mi Copa Rebosa 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Kool Aid Girl 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Forgotten 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Gabby’s Half 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Royal Alexandra 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 B’s Ten 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Calimambo 2.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Asongforyou 4.00 2.9 6-1
6 5 Forerun 4.50 3.8 7-1
5 4 Why Joey Why 20.00 4.3 8-1
7 6 Saltee Stark 6.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Charge the Line 3.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Jake the Band Man 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 2 Lusitano 5.00 4.3 8-1
7 4 Consumerconfidence 12.00 4.7 9-1
8 5 Morning Stride 4.50 5 9-1
2 1 Skycraft 6.00 5.5 10-1
10 7 Majestic Sign 12.00 5.8 11-1
9 6 Mucho Macho Bets 8.00 6 11-1
5 3 Son of a Saint 20.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Antarctic 10.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Murry Spur 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Senor Friday 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Don’task Don’ttell 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Stop Shoppin Tammy 3.50 2.4 5-1
4 4 Livy B 6.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Kizzy B 3.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Freshman Class 4.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Actress On Board 20.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Heavenly Sis 2.50 4.2 8-1
6 6 Artistic Jewler 12.00 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Reserve List 8.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Sail On Ellen 4.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Sconsin 8.00 4.3 8-1
10 6 Polarcents 12.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Tizso Awesome 8.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Vintage Ready 10.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Cazadora 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Pink Posse 12.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Fine One Won 6.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Jim’s Bronze Star 3.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Good On Paper 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Wicked Smart 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 4 Gato Del Banco 4.50 2.9 5-1
1A 8 Wellfield 2.50 3.6 7-1
4 3 Hitthegroundrunnin 8.00 3.9 7-1
1 2 V Man 2.50 3.9 7-1
7 7 Shackleford Road 2.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Djinn of Djibouti 6.00 4.9 9-1
2B 6 Civil 4.50 5.3 10-1
3 1 Cabo Headache 8.00 6.2 12-1
6 7 Forever Touched 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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