Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Friday, February 14, 2020

February 14, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Ohmymy Ohmyyes 4.00 2.5 5-1
7 6 My Classic Bowtie 6.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 No More for U 4.50 4 8-1
1 1 The Glory Music 10.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Jacobs Flyer 8.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Mikey’s Mouse 10.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Band Boss 12.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Three Run Homer 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 One More Jump 3.50 2.5 5-1
7 6 Coach O’Shea 12.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Grand Priority 6.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Jimmy One Sock 5.00 3 6-1
2 2 Piper’s Buttercup 8.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 No Quarter 1.60 4.7 9-1
9 8 Loveu and Proudofu 20.00 5.5 10-1
8 7 Keys to the Palace 10.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Tensas Gold 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 War Count 6.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Phat and Fast 2.50 3.1 6-1
1 1 Greeley Went West 4.50 3.7 7-1
6 6 Adrenaline 5.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Greeley’s Banker 8.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Buckets 8.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Pickett 4.50 4.4 8-1
8 8 Pay the Dream 8.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Robinson 6.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Midnight Patriot 5.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Arabian Story 4.00 5.9 11-1
1 4 Ekaterinoslav 6.00 6.2 12-1
4 3 Bayandbunny 30.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Zenman 30.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Irish Hokie 15.00 7 13-1
2 1 Tapizart 20.00 7.4 14-1
8 8 Ballyhack 6.00 7.5 14-1
6 6 Taamer 3.00 8.5 16-1
3 2 Sportster 20.00 8.6 16-1
1A 13 Kaliningrad 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Smart Arch 12.00 SCRATCH
13 14 Actress On Board 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Rivetrix 8.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Cry Like a Baby 8.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Strong Patriot 2.50 4.1 8-1
1 1 Hero of Gold 4.50 4.3 8-1
6 6 Color Fashioned 3.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 My My My 5.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Our Lucky Star 8.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Robyns Luckylizard 20.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 2 Blackline 8.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Knight’s Cross 8.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Logical Myth 8.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Limnery 3.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Clear for Action 5.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Martial Eagle 15.00 5.8 11-1
8 8 Sharp Prospect 8.00 6 11-1
11 11 Big Beautiful Wall 20.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Clear Vision 8.00 6.8 13-1
2 1 Pont Du Gard 10.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 Kulik Bear 4.00 8.7 16-1
1A 13 Singapore Flash 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Hitch 10.00 SCRATCH
13 14 Chop Chop Charlie 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Charming Lady 2.50 1.8 3-1
5 5 Alta’s Award 2.50 3.4 6-1
4 4 Portrait 1.60 3.6 7-1
3 3 She Can’t Sing 8.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Evil Lyn 10.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Halama 12.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Artie’s Rumor 6.00 3.9 7-1
12 11 Easy Shot 10.00 4.5 9-1
5 4 Jazzy Justin 20.00 4.7 9-1
10 9 Tell Your Daddy 8.00 5.3 10-1
9 8 Kearny County 20.00 5.5 10-1
8 7 Keep Quiet (FR) 4.50 5.6 11-1
4 3 Hierarchy 8.00 5.7 11-1
6 5 Secretary At War 4.00 5.8 11-1
3 2 Lord Wimborne (IRE) 10.00 6.1 12-1
11 10 Speed Franco 6.00 6.8 13-1
2 1 Sir Truebadour 20.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 Botswana 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Major Ridge 12.00 4.3 8-1
8 6 My Rainey Day 20.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 My Prophet 6.00 4.4 8-1
5 3 Myblendofwhisky 12.00 4.8 9-1
9 7 Boston Repo 3.00 5 9-1
10 10 Fat Clemenza 4.00 SCRATCH
11 8 El Tristan 20.00 5.7 11-1
4 2 Cheers to Berti 2.50 6.1 12-1
7 5 King Bandit 12.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Dude Greeley 30.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Tin Roof Rusted 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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