Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, February 9, 2020

February 9, 2020 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Bank Gala 3.50 2.7 5-1
8 7 Try’n Smart’n Up 4.00 3 6-1
1 1 Talespin 12.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Brown Eyed Boy 1.40 3.9 7-1
6 6 Freudian Analyst 50.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Unlikely 30.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Golconda 3.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 El Sangru 15.00 4.7 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Take It to Scale 1.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Call the Cat 4.00 2.9 6-1
4 4 Quest for Fire 3.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Bustin the Rules 15.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Desert Lights 6.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Fleet Warrior 20.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Our Honor 12.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Calinas Song 3.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Dirty Bird 3.50 2.7 5-1
7 7 Overtime Olivia 10.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Fair Lassie 10.00 3 6-1
6 6 Miss Hot Stones 1.20 4.3 8-1
5 5 Tiz a Kitten 15.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Dovey Lovey 8.00 4.5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Blame the Thief 6.00 2.4 5-1
7 6 Shamrock Kid 2.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Peter’s Project 6.00 3 6-1
2 2 Horoscope 8.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Control Group 1.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 San Juan Diego 15.00 4 8-1
5 5 What a Catch 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Blugrascat’s Smile 4.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Joe’s Smokin Gun 2.50 2.4 5-1
4 4 Storm Prophet 1.80 2.7 5-1
6 6 Danebury 3.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Bustin Shout 12.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Vincento 8.00 3.9 7-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Sandy Lane 5.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Shalako 2.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Eden Ridge 8.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Mills 2.50 3.7 7-1
3 3 Local Hero 4.00 4 8-1
2 2 Brimstone 15.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Proud Enough 30.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Gypsum Johnny 10.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Chateau 1.60 2.4 5-1
5 5 Fuel the Bern 6.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Piven 4.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 His Name Is Sue 6.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Tribecca 3.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 The Sicarii 20.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Vorticity 8.00 4.7 9-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Biogio’s Rose S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Our Super Nova 3.00 3 6-1
1 1 Mrs. Orb 5.00 3 6-1
6 5 More Mischief 5.00 3 6-1
4 3 No Hayne No Gayne 10.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Out of Orbit 15.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Held Accountable 10.00 3.5 7-1
7 6 Newly Minted 1.60 3.8 7-1
5 4 Espresso Shot 12.00 4.5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 10 Microgram 6.00 1.9 4-1
10 9 A d’Oro 10.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Goosarella 8.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Our Lady of Winloc 30.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Left Leaning Lucy 12.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Gringotts 20.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 High School Crush 2.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 More Diamonds 15.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Desbordes 4.50 4.9 9-1
2 2 Menzamenz 15.00 5.1 10-1
12 11 Big Red Girl 15.00 6.1 12-1
8 8 Big Cyn 15.00 6.3 12-1
13 12 Playboys Pitch 50.00 6.4 12-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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