February 9, 2020 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Bank Gala | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Try’n Smart’n Up | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Talespin | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Brown Eyed Boy | 1.40 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Freudian Analyst | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Unlikely | 30.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Golconda | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | El Sangru | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Take It to Scale | 1.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Call the Cat | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Quest for Fire | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bustin the Rules | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Desert Lights | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fleet Warrior | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Our Honor | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Calinas Song | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dirty Bird | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Overtime Olivia | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fair Lassie | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Miss Hot Stones | 1.20 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tiz a Kitten | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dovey Lovey | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Blame the Thief | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Shamrock Kid | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Peter’s Project | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Horoscope | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Control Group | 1.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | San Juan Diego | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | What a Catch | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Blugrascat’s Smile | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Joe’s Smokin Gun | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Storm Prophet | 1.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Danebury | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bustin Shout | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Vincento | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Sandy Lane | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shalako | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Eden Ridge | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mills | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Local Hero | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Brimstone | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Proud Enough | 30.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gypsum Johnny | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Chateau | 1.60 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fuel the Bern | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Piven | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | His Name Is Sue | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tribecca | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | The Sicarii | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Vorticity | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Biogio’s Rose S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Our Super Nova | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mrs. Orb | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | More Mischief | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | No Hayne No Gayne | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Out of Orbit | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Held Accountable | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Newly Minted | 1.60 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Espresso Shot | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Microgram | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | A d’Oro | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Goosarella | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Our Lady of Winloc | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Left Leaning Lucy | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gringotts | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | High School Crush | 2.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | More Diamonds | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Desbordes | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Menzamenz | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Big Red Girl | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Big Cyn | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Playboys Pitch | 50.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.