Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, January 16, 2020

January 16, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Our Foolish Girl 2.50 2.1 4-1
5 5 Top Ten Duchess 4.50 2.4 5-1
3 3 Hot Melissa 5.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Sandy’s Wager 8.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Tiz Darby 20.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Emery’s Dream 15.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Floatie 20.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Pink Appeal 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Frankincense 3.50 2.6 5-1
6 5 Rescind 4.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Landofthepharaohs 6.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Take Charge d’Oro 6.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Kearny County 5.00 3.8 7-1
5 4 Cade’s On the Bump 6.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Nature’s Fortune 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Blondie Lox Babe 5.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Custom for Carlita 4.00 3.2 6-1
9 9 Lady Fitzgerald 4.50 3.7 7-1
3 3 Lady Date 6.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Kehron’s Creed 6.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Lil Kylie 8.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Paper Doll 5.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Heart of Soul 12.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 My Mallory’s On 12.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 Singing Ontherail 20.00 8.4 16-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Southern Swagg 5.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Whistling Wind 4.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 Confederate Yell 4.50 3.6 7-1
4 4 Star Yankee 5.00 4.2 8-1
10 10 Lord Colliery 5.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Chimneyville 10.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Disapproval 6.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Horace Charles 20.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Cat On the Roof 12.00 7.7 15-1
3 3 No More for U 12.00 7.9 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Commanding Candy 3.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Copper Fiddle 3.50 2.6 5-1
9 9 Handsome Honey 4.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Djinn of Djibouti 8.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Coworker 8.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Slick Dude 12.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 He’s a Climber 8.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Morethanfishin 8.00 6.1 12-1
8 8 Perdido Bay 20.00 6.1 12-1
10 10 Oro de Tejano 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Pocho’s Dream 3.50 1.7 3-1
7 5 Trivista 3.00 2.2 4-1
4 3 Crealock 4.50 3.5 7-1
5 4 Tap King 6.00 4.5 9-1
9 7 Mr. Big City 8.00 4.9 9-1
3 2 Expect Ice 10.00 4.9 9-1
8 6 Happy Go Lucky 12.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Cratus 30.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Foggy Albion 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Magi 4.50 2.4 5-1
6 6 Maintainance Matt 5.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Jim’s Silverbullet 6.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Tranquility Base 6.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Yes He Can 10.00 4 8-1
8 7 Katzarelli 12.00 4.8 9-1
10 9 Topshop 12.00 4.8 9-1
9 8 Max Pandowdy 8.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Awe Patriot 12.00 6.1 11-1
7 7 Prioritizer 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Elsie’s Kid 6.00 2.6 5-1
9 9 Carry the One 5.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Bee Bit 5.00 4 8-1
1 1 Ragatagtag 4.50 4.1 8-1
10 10 Maybe I Can 6.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Bold Esther 4.00 5 9-1
8 8 For Reef’s Sake 12.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Kraft’s Rate 12.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Princess Trina 8.00 7 13-1
3 3 Mt. Rain 20.00 8.8 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Empty Tomb 2.50 1.5 3-1
2 2 So Alive 8.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Pirate’s Punch 1.60 3 6-1
5 5 Seek the Peak 6.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Broth 4.50 4 7-1
6 6 Dictator 8.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Keep Quiet (FR) 3.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Hierarchy 4.50 3.9 7-1
10 10 Rijeka (IRE) 5.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Botswana 5.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Artie’s Rumor 8.00 4.9 9-1
11 11 Conquest Lemonraid 10.00 5 9-1
6 6 Take That for Data 10.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Another Mystery 15.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Harlan Selection (ARG) 12.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Kitten’s Boy 20.00 7.9 15-1
5 5 Tell Your Daddy 12.00 8.4 16-1
12 12 Altito 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Shaq Jack 3.50 2.6 5-1
4 2 Linea Amarilla 4.00 2.6 5-1
3 2 Creole Candy 3.00 SCRATCH
8 6 Run to Fame 6.00 2.9 6-1
9 7 Our Bucket List 6.00 4.4 8-1
6 4 Fire Giant 20.00 4.9 9-1
5 3 My Guitar 8.00 5.6 11-1
7 5 Bet On J J 20.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Man Alive 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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