November 30, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Street of Dreams | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Glamour Girl | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Never Forget | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Jeweled Princess | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Foreign Exchange | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Areemaa | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Omnia | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Glorious Gal | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fire Coral | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | O Seraphina | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Butterscotch Rose | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Bonbons Fleur | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Beckinsale | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Auction Fever | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Miss Is Zippy | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Kertara | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | Rain Dance | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Palace Miss | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fate Factor | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Fiona Power | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Fall Moon | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Caribbean Kitten | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Carefree Highway | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Take Charge Patti | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Graysonsmacho Gal | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sweet Bay | 15.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Elegant Bay | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Spoken With a Kiss | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Diamond Hill | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Osaka Girl | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Unforeseen | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Sequin | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Velvet Crush | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 18 | 18 | Irrepressible | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 19 | 19 | Meritaten | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 20 | 20 | Loaded | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Josie | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Indy Takes Charge | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Black Kat Taps | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rising Seas | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mizzen Beau | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Miss Firecracker | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Myers Tiger | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Over the Blues | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ruby Y’all | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Wished | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Flatoya | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Beach Time | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Silver Take Charge | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Veruca | 2.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Cloudbuster | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | My Sugar Pie | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Motown Girl | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Gypsy Wind Jeanne | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Tale of Mona | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Elsie’s First | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shelley’s Gem | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kapiolani | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Jilted Bride | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Double That | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Kiss Mo | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Dynamite Gift | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Blackberry Wine | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Shared Sense | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Cardiac Kid | 4.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ahsad | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Flug | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Smirk | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Bayou Prospector | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 20 | 10 | Hunt the Front | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Matheson | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 9 | Mishko | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | High Holy | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Autumn Jett | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Duke of Carthania | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Casanova Kitten | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Continental Clash | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Wicked Worry | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Strike Appeal | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Alex Joon | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 18 | 18 | In Sky We Trust | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 19 | 19 | Deanos Cape | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Naughty Alfred | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Shippingport | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Bango | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Lykan | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | American Butterfly | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Art Collector | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Shanghai Nights | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Improbable Story | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Chipofftheoldblock | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | The Devils Back | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Little Menace | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Heir of Light | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Beautiful Trauma | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lady Jenneviere | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Duplicitous | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Emily’s Oasis | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Swiss Skydiver | 3.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Three D Flag | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bayerness | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Competitive Fire | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Copper Nickel | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Miss Imperfection | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Queenofcatniphill | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Digital | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Cornbread Kingdom | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | On Tilt | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Oxide | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Instafamous | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Elusive Ruler | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Call Me Later | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Jack’s Advantage | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Numidian | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mailman Money | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Whiskey Chaser | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Marine Mission | 15.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Banks Island | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Son of Ga Ga | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Big Biz | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Willfred | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Golden Rod S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Turtle Trax | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bean | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Finite | 1.40 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | His Glory | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Motu | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lady Glamour | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ivyetsu | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | She Can’t Sing | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Wells Bayou | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Necker Island | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Beyond Gone | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sprawl | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Wayne O | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Olly Wonder | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Off the Meds | 8.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Silver State | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11A | 10 | Something Natural | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mr Hoover | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Strong Tide | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Feeling It | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Devil’s Drama | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Carpe Victoriam | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Bahama Channel | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16A | 16 | Automate | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Kentucky Jockey Club S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Tiz the Law | 1.40 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | South Bend | 1.80 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Enforceable | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Silver Prospector | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Finnick the Fierce | 30.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fighting Seabee | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Two Last Words | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | New Eagle | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Shotski | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Sounion | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dark Oak | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Icecap | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Civil Servant | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Kentucky Summer | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Recklessness | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fight Fight Fight | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Lastchanceatglory | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Draw the Line | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Brother Martin | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Monarchos Music | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Astrologer | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Decision Maker | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Speightstown Again | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Speaking the Truth | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | No Shirt No Shoes | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.